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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 24, 2013

January 24
04:19 2013

So we get another day of chop for the EUR/USD but there was an advanced entry I took short that I will discuss in the live London session today. What makes it a more advanced entry is there wasnt a clear level in the area other than the Asian box highs. Having said that the manipulation was very clear and I took the short at 1.3343. It did come back and knock me out at break even while I slept just before it dropped the 80 pips but it wasnt the first nor will it be the last time that happens. 😉

Today at least the range is a bit tighter and we have levels that are closer to current price action although nothing has really changed with a bias on direction. Since its already testing the highs after London closed yesterday and as long as it holds through Asia I will consider the short there with some clear manipulation during London today. Otherwise the hourly 200 EMA is holding nicely at the Asian lows so that will be an option for a long. The trapping patterns will have to be very clear to trade from those levels but they are the only options besides yesterdays highs or lows.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Jan. 24, 2013

The GBP/USD had some beautiful manipulation yesterday at the clearest levels. It did something very similar to what it did for us in the live training session Tuesday for the long right after the room for another nice 60+ pip move. It also treated the NY session traders with an impressive set of manipulation candle patterns for the NY reversal that went another 60+ pips. I did see quite a few members caught at least the long trade so good job guys.

Today I will be looking for more of the same with a slight bias to the downside. My thoughts are since its been in this chop the chance for the reversal has diminished and they are loading up for the drop. Of course there is still the chance for the push to the upside so I am open for a long from the lows again but I will be watching that hourly close for some conviction. If I get it I will be more bias for the short and look to trade the manipulation to the upside.

Since it has already pushed out a nice 30 pip range during the Asian session I will be open for the manipulation at the Asian highs considering the 15 minute 200 EMA is there but it will need to be clear. providing it still holds for the next few hours. 🙂

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Jan. 24, 2013

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Forex News Today

Scheduled news picks up pretty good today with Services and Manufacturing PMI from France, Germany and the Euro Zone. To be honest I dont expect much from these without a large miss mainly because they are all well below the 50 expansion level except the Services for Germany. On top of that they are only expected to slightly improve so we will most likely get a non event baring a large miss.

The UK only has BBA Mortgage Approvals and as with the US housing making a recovery will be a sign the economy is doing the same so this could create some volatility for us but I have my doubts. 

The US has the Thursday Unemployment figures expected to rise by 20K. If this can surprise to the upside it will create some USD weakness but how long that lasts is a different story. The Fed is already all in and it hasnt helped unemployment one bit so if they were to print more its doubtful it will do any good. However you never know what the Fed will do unless your Bank of America or Goldman Sachs. Later there is also Manufacturing PMI expected to drop but still remain well above the 50 level so baring a big surprise down we probably wont get much there either.

Happy Trading


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