EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis July 12, 2013
The EUR/USD today has had a first push down. Being Friday I am not going to have a solid bias on direction as this is more than likely the beginnings of a third push chop scenario. Taking entries in the middle of this 200 pip range does carry higher risk so I will want to see confirmed manipulation at the levels. The first level I will consider a short is the highs during the US session at 1.3121 but prefer to see the Asian range widen out first. If they do push above that the 1.3146 level is the next option. If they push it beyond there with conviction they will most likely test the highs and I will look for the short there.
The potential for the long is still there at the 1.3070 level but if the Asian range is below 35 pips I will want to see them play the breakout traders above the Asian range before I consider a long at the Asian lows or preferably 1.3070.
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The GBP/USD is in the same situation and is even less clear on direction with the 130+ pip move being fully retraced. It does have a topping formation at the end of the day but with the US boys making the push up it has just as much of a chance of breaking and pushing north as it does pushing down today. If we get the higher close during the London session it does negate the topping formation and increases the probability of breaking higher but I would prefer to see the hourly close above yesterdays high to get a bias for the long. Otherwise the best level for the long is around the lows of 1.5079 but with the right price action I will consider it at 1.5140. I will prefer any short to be from a stop run to the highs at 1.5220.
My pending long at 1.5070 I set in the London live training session yesterday did get hit and ran 70+ pips before coming back and hitting my protected profit stop at +40 pips. Of course later it went off to hit my TP at 1.5175 without me. Such as trading so on to the next trade.
Forex News Today
The scheduled news releases are light today with only PPI figures and Michigan Consumer sentiment from the US late in the day. Therefore the digestion of Bernankes statements will most likely continue. Considering this the chance of a break to the upside is lower on both pairs but still possible if they really believe Ben will increase the QEternity.
Enjoy More Rick Santelli
This is a great video of Rick blowing his lid asking the question of just what the heck Ben is doing and who hes actually supporting. Check out this chart comparing cooperate profits to the percent of the US population who have a job. Also keep in mind that around 80% of the jobs created during the last several months are part time. You will understand that Rick has good reason to lose his cool as we all should be. Enjoy.
Have a great weekend
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