EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis March 26, 2013
I hate to beat a dead horse so to speak but I have to say I find it comical to find out that I wasnt far off when I said the Russians and others would find a way of getting their money out of Cyprus before the Troika and Cyprus had a chance to take it. I figured there would be bribes or some other connection based transfers but as I found out this morning there was no need since even though the Cyprus based banks were closed to stop the capital flight. There were branches left open in the UK and Russia that left no limits on withdraws. I about fell off my chair laughing when I read that this morning. Check out the Reuters article here.
I knew when they first started estimating the losses to these depositors the figures were going to be on the low end. Sure enough estimates started at 15% on deposits over 100K if they left the smaller ones alone. Then as things progressed it went to 20% and now has reached a staggering 50%. Depending on how much actually got pilfered at the other branches over the week they were negotiating, the chances are this figure could climb much higher. Cyprus is screwed to put it lightly.
Just a reminder to my commentary last Monday when I said the real damage will be done if the rest of the Euro Zone people start to panic and take their deposits out for a zone wide bank run. Well this may be closer than I thought considering some bonehead slipping the truth last night. The Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said “a rescue program agreed for Cyprus on Monday represents a new template for resolving euro zone banking problems and other countries may have to restructure their banking sectors.” Of course this was quickly retracted but the case of foot in mouth disease was already festering and we got more fuel to the Euro drop across the board. On top of that its going to be like Reggie Middleton said in the video posted in yesterdays commentary. “Its not the regular depositors that will cause the real bank runs. Its the investors (bond holders).”
As far as the charts go we have a clean first push down for 200+ pips and the move was rather efficient so I am not expecting much of a pullback. The best level I see for potential manipulation is Fridays low of 1.2887 and if it dont happen there the psych level of 1.2900 will be the next place to look. There is a small chance it makes it to the 1.2932 level but I have my doubts it will get that high.
The GBP/USD had a cleaner push down with a 115+ pip move showing the small third push up was valid for the reversal. I didn’t get an entry as I was late to the party yesterday and cant say there was a clear enough entry if I was. Today I will be expecting the next push down. We have the 15 minute 200 EMA to start with not far above price right now which is also a proven resistance level at 1.5192 but it could test the 1.5200 psych level with a stop run so that’s what I will be looking for at those two levels.
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Scheduled releases are light until we get to the US session and have Durable Goods Orders data first. The headline figure expected to increase while the Core figures decreasing seems a bit funny to me. Considering the housing data of late I dont understand it so I think there is a better chance for a surprise. Later is New Home sales expected to drop so the Durable Goods data might give a clue to how much it may miss.
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