EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis for October 31, 2013
The EUR/USD managed to get the second push yesterday but had to wait for the Fed to give them the go ahead. There was little changed in the rhetoric about any tapering but they did say the recovery is modest again with no real talk of potentially increasing QE like most of us think they will eventually have to do. The signs will be when they start to admit the US economy isn’t really doing so great and needs more juice to get it going. However we need to keep in mind that there could be a miracle if somebody pulls their head out for fresh air and they say “no more” and let the markets correct. Somehow when I think of the probabilities of that I think I am on Fantasy Island but you never know.
I will have a bias for the third push today to most likely go down and test the 1.3670 level where there is some daily support. Since yesterdays low is holding quite well along with the hourly 200ema I will look at the Asian highs as the best place to short from today. If they run out any buyers before that it wont make it quite there so I will need some clear trapping to take it with out a stop run. Since we do have a tight Average Daily Range I will overlook the short Asian range but will still want a clear set up. If it does manage to push higher then 1.3748 is the next level I will watch for the test.
The GBP/USD made a half hearted third push yesterday. In normal circumstances I would expect the reversal but if the EU is going to make a third push today then it will likely drag the GU with as long as the EUR/GBP doesn’t have a fit and they run opposite directions. Im going to keep an open mind on this pair today and if they do a nice stop run to the lows I will take it if Im not already short the Euro. otherwise the best opportunity I see for the short is the Asian highs that corresponds with the highs after the news yesterday. If they do push past there then yesterdays highs will be the next best shorting level. I will also mention that its at a daily breakout support level but if this does break down then it has till 1.5942 to run before it finds the heavier support that they could turn it at.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare for the London session today. There is a BOJ Press Conference that may throw the Yen crosses in a tizzy so watch out for that. otherwise the only significant event is US Thursday Employment data. of course if it misses negative in a large way we will get the spike but since Bernanke has admitted the unemployment data doesn’t really mean much since it don’t represent the real jobless it may not be that big of a reaction. Of course if it misses positively then there is a larger chance that it create a sustained move is higher as more thoughts of tapering comes in.
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