EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 16th Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD didn’t really go anywhere after showing the conviction below Mondays lows yesterday, leaving it open for the potential fake out to the downside and reversal up. As I mentioned in the live training session yesterday the big boys seem to always get the knee jerk reaction when central banks do the verbal intervention like Super Mario did last week but they always also test their resolve and eventually force them to act. A couple of good examples are the testing of the SNB back in 2011 when they talked about the strength of the Swiss Franc for several months hinting they would do something but eventually were forced to put the 1.20 floor in on the EUR/CHF and has since been noted as the most successful central bank intervention to date. Sure, it did cost them billions of CHF but it worked and still working at a much lower cost now. The other is the BOJ, although they haven’t been quite as successful the same scenario happened as they jaw boned about it for months as the Yen got stronger but eventually the big boys forced their hand. I expect the same will happen with the ECB. It seems the big boys always test that resolve to show them who is really in charge. We will see.
Trading the EU today I will still have a slight bias for the next push down while open for the long still. The longer it stays in this range the less the probability they will push it down from here. If they don’t do it today then we will have to trade the range until they break it out in a direction to have a good idea of where its going next. Considering the 43 pip range the best level for the short will be the highs at 1.3831 that stopped it yesterday. The safest place to be looking for the long is yesterdays lows but with the 1.3805 level getting much reaction yesterday I will be open for the long there if they can manage to push it up during Asia then run stops below with a clear set up. It is a more aggressive entry but by the time London starts today it will have been in the range for two days lessening the probability for the short.
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The GBP/USD made what we like to call a exhaustion reversal yesterday. I am never really enthused about them running the intraday pushes like we have here but it is the clearest way to be looking at this pair today. At this point I will be looking to see the first push upward with the best level being the 1.6695 just below the hourly 200 ema. If they do push it up during the Asian session then I will consider the 1.6711 lows of the London/US overlap for the long but will want to see a range of at least 25 pips considering its ADR is only 73 pips right now. I should also mention that with the hourly 200 in close proximity they will most likely use it to their advantage also so turning there is a possibility but I prefer to see the 1.6711 hold as they test it.
Being it is the third push there is a slight chance for the push down from the 1.6743 level but I will only consider that if there is no clear short opportunity and they show they wont let it pass there with a stop run and more trapping after.
Forex News Today
The calendar start with UK Unemployment data. They are expecting another 30k to come off and a drop in the unemployment rate. This will need a big miss to create a sustained move although my thoughts it will be close. The Euro Zone has their CPI data today expected at .05% and as long as its close we wont see much but if it does drop close to or below zero we will see the Euro weaken across the board but mainly against the GBP which may also send the GU upwards.
The US has housing data and another Janet Yellen speech today along wit the Feds Fisher. Considering the manipulation of the housing market the data will need to miss big in order to create much of a stir but will most likely be close and they will wait to see if Yellen or Fisher drop any surprises later in the day.
The Asian session traders should watch out for the BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech tomorrow but since he also has one today the chance for a surprise is higher today than it is tomorrow.
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