EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis July 29, 2013
Today should be a rather straight forward trading day with the EUR/USD holding in a tight range of around 45 pips last Friday. I am still going to be bias for the next push to the upside since there is still the first push up and if they are hesitant on making the next push or the first one is false we want to see it go into the chop for at least a day and a half before I lose my bias.
I would prefer to see the first conviction close outside this range during the London session today to add more probability to a long position but if they run it around making an attempt to break the 1.3300 level during Asia and pull it back I will look for trapping around 1.3272 first and if nothing is clear there wait for 1.3253 as they may need to push out any weak longs before they do the push.
I will still be open for a short but will need to see that they clearly wont let it pass the highs at 1.3300 along with enough signals that it will change the small bias for the long.
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The GBP/USD has almost identical price action that I expected to see in last Fridays commentary. The reason for this is whats known as Friday flows when the big boys are just managing the money in the market from the previous week and we will often see this sort of price action because of this. On top of that it is almost August and volume could be dropping off due to the summer doldrums this year. Having said that, in the last few tears the forex market didn’t slow down as much as usual due to the financial crisis so its a toss up whether or not it will this year. So far it hasn’t really slowed much at all but that don’t mean August wont. However it does lower the chance.
I will not have a bias on this pair today due to the fact we still don’t have any clear long term push. There is the intraday push from Thursday but the price action throughout the day leaves it in question on where they really intend to push it next. The daily breakout level at 1.5393 has still held up but seeing how much it was violated Friday it has lost some significance as a good level therefor seeing clear manipulation at Fridays highs and a good entry will be good for a short keeping in mind with the spike Thursday we will need to be careful since it may reach as high as 1.5432. I will start looking for a long around 1.5372 but only if the Asian range widens out and if that don’t happen we will most likely see a test of the lows at 1.5356 if they do intend the push up today.
Forex News Today
There are only a few releases of note today and none of them high impact but could produce some opportunity for them to manipulate if they miss big. First is the German GfK Consumer Climate expected to rise slightly. Since this is released before the London session opens we could get some movement on a large deviation from whats expected. Later is an Italian 10yr auction and as usual will only be paid attention to if it goes badly. Lastly at the New York open is the German CPI data. With the low figures as of late I doubt there will be much reaction unless it spikes above 2% on the yearly data which is unlikely.
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