EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis June 12, 2013
Now we have a clearer picture on direction for the EUR/USD. On a long term perspective we have the first clear push up while on an intraday basis we have two pushes. I will be looking at this from the intraday view since we have been seeing the markets trade off them much more than usual lately. The pushes are over a two day scale and is the clearer way to be seeing what the banks are up to.
The problem is the levels to take the long from are foggy at best. the line I have at 1.3291 represents the highest probability considering price action. however there are two daily levels in close proximity along with the psych level of 1.3300. With the Asian range rather tight so far this morning the test of 1.3291 seems likely before they push it up but that is not a guarantee by ant stretch of the imagination. What would be nicest to see would be the test down to widen the Asian range and then see them play the breakout traders on both sides of the range if they wont widen it up to 35 pips or more. the 1.3316 level is a daily level from February that I would expect some loading up before breaking it and if they do make the push today price has a good 100+ pips before the next significant daily level.
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The GBP/USD has had some slightly different price action due to the EUR/GBP movement yesterday. However the pushes are very similar with the difference being it took the Asian session yesterday to complete a decent push. With the daily level at 1.5687 there are two scenarios we could see today if they do make the next push as expected. the first is a deeper pullback and the test of 1.5687 and it holds or the trade I would prefer is the shallower pullback to 1.5600 and a push up for the break. if that happens there is a long way before we see significant daily resistance.
Again we have some closer daily levels that could provide the support for the shorter pullback but I will want a good entry to take the trade there. They are 1.5616 and 1.5585 but the highest probability is the psych 1.5600.
Forex News Today
The economic calendar seems busier than it really is today also. The CPI data from Germany, France, Italy and Spain really shouldn’t be an event since inflation figures are still well below 2% so unless we see the spike in the German figures above that level (which is doubtful) then these releases will be a non event. Later in the day there is EZ Industrial Production which could see some manipulation with a decent miss. expectations are for a significant drop below the big zero so the bar is low but could surprise to the downside so keep an eye on that.
The UK has unemployment figures which could surprise as they have of late so I will be watching for the set up just before that event. Expectations are for 5k of the unemployed getting jobs but it could go either way considering the misses as of late.
The US don’t have much data of note today.
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