EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Forex Commentary November 12, 2012
The EUR/USD has seen the second push as we expected in the November 9 commentary. There was a beautiful 1 hour stop run to the highs from Thursday at the 1.2780 level. They don’t get much prettier than that. It just so happened that I was finishing up a conversation with Sterling when the candle closed. We both said something about it and when the talk was over I set a pending short at 1.2780 and went to take a nap. When I woke up a couple hours later the trade was almost 40 pips in profit so I moved the stop to break even and set a take profit just above the 1.2700 psych level at 1.2705. As I was sitting here watching it push down it came within my spread of hitting the take profit. Since the bar that did it closed as a doji I wasn’t going to fuss over 10 pips so I closed it for 65 pips.
Now that we have the second push we will be expecting the third today. We are starting to get some momentum to the upside during the Asian session so I will have to wait and see what this brings to be looking for levels to short from. if it cant muster any higher than the Asian highs will be the first place I look for the manipulation. It has the 15 minute 200 ema just above current price action so that will a good place to see the manipulation also. I will not be looking for the long on this pair today since the second push trades most often have the third push in store.
The GBP/USD gave the same 1 hour stop run on Friday that we saw on the Euro. However I didn’t take the short on this pair because it had a 1 hour candle close above the significant level on the candle before the stop run. Now if it had made the push to do the stop run above the hourly 200 ema I would have been all over it but since it didn’t I held off. Of course it missed the pullback for my entry anyway so all was good. Other than it ran for 130 pips 🙂
I will be looking for the short on this pair today also but its not as clean as the Euro so I will be a little more cautious. If we do see that it makes a push down here there is a good chance that the third push started at the 5 hour long chop during the US session Friday. If there is a 90 pip push down from the highs at 1.5938 to the support level around 1.5850 we may see the reversal from there. Otherwise the safest place to take the short will be at some manipulation around 1.5938.
I should also mention that the lows from Thursday have already been rejected and as much as the GBP/USD likes turning at the 20 levels we may see the manipulation at 1.5920. It will be a little riskier entry so I will need some clear trapping candle patterns to short from that level.
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Forex News Today
In short there is none on the schedule to be that concerned about. What we do have is the Euro Group Meetings going on all day so of course we will be on the lookout for tape bombs.
The US banks are closed today for Veterans day so the probability of seeing a move during Asia and London goes up substantially.
Greece did pass the final hurdle to getting the next chunk of bailout cash with the passing of the budget in their parliament yesterday so we should be seeing them get their wish with the 2 year extension of the agreement on budget cuts and reforms. What i will be looking for is anything from Germany or other Euro states that says more is needed to get Greece on a sustainable path. There have been a few reports that show Greece needs some more debt forgiveness in order to get anywhere close to a debt ratio of 120% by 2020. However the major holders of Greek debt now are Euro Zone central banks along with the ECB and they all refuse to take the hit. I have seen some good prospects for them forgoing profits and even returning past profits they have made so far but it don’t look to be enough to get Greece on track. We will have to wait and see what happens at this point.
In Fridays commentary I mentioned the US fiscal cliff. I will be updating this issue as I see anything progress. One thing of note, even though we have the reports from the main stream media that both sides have made statements of their desires to work together. All looks fine and dandy as long as you conveniently miss the part of Obama’s speech where he effectively draws a line in the sand saying “I will veto any bill that does not include taxing the rich”
This kind of throws a wrench at the GOP since we all know they wont budge on their desire for tax cuts for the rich. We could very well be in for a fight over whats going to happen at the beginning of the year. I will do my best to keep you informed.
On a side note here is another Rick Santelli rant. He has a good idea on how to get these guys to come together and actually get something substantial. Saying “leave income alone and tax wealth” Enjoy
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