EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis September 16, 2014
With the Euro not being able to make the second push yesterday it shows the higher potential for the first push being a fake out. However without making any real conviction move to the downside its best to remain open on direction. I should also point out that the 1.2950 level from yesterdays commentary had a significant reaction again along with the lesser significant level at 1.2943. I didnt take the aggressive long set up before the London open even though the pattern was good. It missed the 1.2950 level and that time of day has much lower potential for it being true manipulation than either the Frankfurt or London opens.
The best level to short from today is up at yesterdays highs where it has the hourly 200 for confluence but considering the current distance from price they will need to start pushing it up for a test early on in the day. If they do push down from here this morning I will consider a test of the 1.2950 for the short but will need a really nice set up due to the added risk of trading in the middle of a chop scenario. Otherwise if they do push it down early in London I will consider a long from 1.2915 but will need a confirmed manipulation move because of the test at 1.2907 yesterday with out taking stops. If they want them they will get them today.
The Pound is still stuck in the range at the highs with no signs of a break in either direction. The probabilities are stacking for a move down the longer they hold it here with no move to the upside but that is no reason to have a bias for the day. The best levels for entries are still the extremes at 1.6268 for a short and 1.6217 for a long but I will consider the 1.6248 level short if there is something very clear there today. Its the NY/London overlap high from yesterday and the only other level that has potential for a turn today. Otherwise I will be waiting to see if they show any conviction below yesterdays lows without testing Fridays to take a backside entry short. Unless they push up during the Asian session the proximity of the 1.6217 to current price lowers the probability they will push up from there during London today.
The weakness of the Euro came through on the EUR/JPY as well yesterday with an intraday push to the downside. I have to admit its a bit shy of what I would like to see even for an intraday push so with all things considered I will be keeping my mind open today. Of course if the Euro weakness continues its going to go down but considering the levels the EU, EJ and UJ are fighting right now these pullbacks could easily be a shake out before the break. The best level to short in a chop is the highs at 139.17 but the 138.82 is valid with the right set up and entry. Having said that I am also open for the long from 138.47 and I will consider the Asian lows and highs for the long as well after seeing some hourly conviction above 138.82
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with CPI data from the UK. At this point its really a toss up as to whether it will miss big or not but as long as its close or even a slight disappointment then the GBP should weaken as interest rate increase expectations get pushed out even further and potential deflation fears creep in. Of course the bigger the miss the more weakness we will see. On the other hand we would need to see a pop close to the 2% threshold in order to see the opposite which isnt likely. Thirty minutes later is the ZEW data for Germany and the Euro Zone. Expectations are for some dismal figures so with them setting the bar low it has a bit better chance of a miss to the upside but Im thinking it will be close. There is no reason to expect better figures since there are really no signs of improvement with recent data.
The US has inflation data as well expected to be rather flat so baring a big surprise we wont see much from it. Otherwise the TIC Data may give reason for a move if it misses big as well. My thoughts are it has a better chance of missing to the upside because even though there are those trying to remove the USD from its reserve status its still the most reliable one out there for now and the foreseeable future.
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