EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis September 30, 2014
The EUR/USD did make an attempt at a reversal moving 50 pips from the lows showing they are more likely to go into extended pushes rather than a full reversal or even try to push out the weak holders with a false push. Of course that’s not enough to give me a bias on the day but does make me prefer a short to the long. Having said that the only thing that has changed from yesterday is the level to short from moved a few pips to 1.2712. Otherwise I will still be open for the long from the lows at 1.2665 if there is no clear short entry but if I do go long I will be cautious and want a good low risk entry.
My bias on the GBP/USD is still for the short today but a little weaker than yesterday because of the chop its gone into yesterday. However they did the same thing before the second push so I will reconsider my bias if they don’t move it for the next push today. The levels have changed a bit with the best short being from 1.6265. However if they manage to push it down during the Asian session I will be willing to take it from the Asian highs with a clear set up and preferably seeing them play the breakout traders to the lows if the range is tight. I will be slightly open for the long from the lows but will need to see that they wont let it pass with at least two trapping patterns.
The EUR/JPY didn’t move to make the extended push I expected yesterday so I will be open on direction on this pair today. I am still holding a short from 139.05 I took on the confirmation entry set up when it pulled back and gave the set of legs. Since it was a low risk entry within 6 pips of the highs I took a little more aggressive approach counting them to show me something more in regards to pushing it down and they did. The volume was also in my favor as well.
If I weren’t already in this pair I would be looking short from the same level but more open for the long since they didnt make the move yesterday. However the levels for a potential long are tight so I would be very cautious and need a really good set up to take it at 138.65 or 138.57. It would be safest and best to wait for 138.45 at the lows.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a bit busier today starting with German Unemployment data. Expectations are for a small reduction and steady Unemployment Rate and I don’t expect much of a miss. However if it does disappoint big then the Euro should weaken across the board. Otherwise a better figure will cause some Euro strength but I doubt it would be enough to make them push. Next is Euro Zone CPI data expected to drop slightly but is close enough to zero that a big miss dropping below is possible. If that does happen the Euro weaken even on better German previous data. They may spike a bit on more prospects of QE from the ECB but it shouldn’t last.
The UK has their GDP data released today expected to be flat. I don’t expect much from this barring a big miss. It should be close the way I see it but nothing surprises me these days.
The US has Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence released at the same time today. The PMI data is expected to drop a few points while the CB data is expected flat. My thoughts are we will see a bigger move if the Consumer data misses big since the bar is set low on Chicago PMI if they both disappoint then we may get USD weakness but I have my doubts they will think the Fed will print more anytime soon so the odds are not good.
Asian session traders need to keep an eye on the Chinese Manufacturing PMI tomorrow along with Aussie Retail Sales 30 minutes later.
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