EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY August 6, 2014 Analysis
Holy cow I have a brand new computer more or less. This thing is better than when I first got it. Of course there is the downside of losing everything on it but there is a bright side even though I still have a boat load of work getting everything back. Unfortunately the live session recordings I didnt have loaded to the server have been lost so I apologize for that. On to the charts.
The EUR/USD did show that the push up on NFP was a fake out yesterday. Now we have a first push down and I will have the bias for the short today. The best level for the short is at 1.3379 but since its in close proximity to current price I will want to see that they push down during the Asian session and then test it during London. Otherwise there is a good chance that they push it up to the 1.3391 level. Otherwise with just the first push I will be open for the long from the lows yesterday. However if they do show conviction below yesterdays lows the next level to test on the daily chart is down at 1.3316 so if I manage to catch the short I will be looking to take profit just above there if they are willing to push past the ADR at 1.3333.
The GBP/USD made the cleaner push to the upside even though it did go into a chop for the day yesterday. I will have the bias for the long today but I am never comfortable with opposite biases on the EU and GU. If the USD comes into the picture, one will fail. The best level I see for the long is down at 1.6847 even though the 1,6863 is valid. I would prefer to see some conviction to the upside and use the Asian session lows to trade from since current price is only 10 pips away. Otherwise I will be open for the short at yesterday highs with a stop run just above or clear trapping telling me they don want price to pass 1.6891.
The EUR/JPY made the second push down the way I see it today. Although one could argue that there is three intraday pushes and it has potential for a turn. I would agree if there was a bottoming formation at the lows but so far there isn’t one depending on how the current candle closes. I will still be slightly open for the long if it does form the bottoming formation but if we see any conviction during Asia this morning I will be only looking to short. If we don’t get the conviction I am looking for the best level to short is 137.35 while if we do then the 13722 has a better chance for the turn. Otherwise they will have to show me something significant in order to take a long from the lows.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off early with German Factory orders expected to get above negative territory. If it does there is potential for some Euro strength if it misses to the upside. Otherwise any disappointment should get us our next push down on the EU. The UK has some early housing data releases but I expect as long as they don’t miss big they will wait for the Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures an hour and a half later. They are both expected to get positive also. As long as they do or surprise to the upside the potential for us to seethe opposite moves on the EU and GU go up substantially as the EUR/GBP takes a beating. Later during the US session there is UK NIESR GP but I don’t expect much from that.
Asian session traders need to keep an eye on Aussie Unemployment data tomorrow.
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