EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis August 14, 2014
The wild move on the EUR/USD makes it unclear which direction they plan to push this pair. At this point the rejection off the highs does show they don’t have much desire in higher prices but I remember saying in Mondays commentary that they are more likely to hold this range for the time being. They don’t want new monthly highs and the beating of the lows does give higher probability for the break down but when or if that happens is the question. Therefore I will be open for either direction today.
The levels we have for potential entries have been beat up a bit so I will need to see something clear in the way of typical hitting the breakout traders to take an entry on this pair today. The best level is where it has the hourly 200 for confluence at 1.3385 while the 1.3379 daily level is still valid for shorts today. Otherwise I will consider a long from the 1.3347 with the right set up but a safer long would be from 1.3336.
The GBP/USD took a beating on the BOE Inflation Report as Carney took almost all the wind out of the sails for a rate increase. It did get a head start at the Unemployment release with the Average earnings disappointing but once Carney said that “rate increases would be gradual and nothing close to historical norms” the selling made the GBP plunge across the board.
With a 157 pip drop I would like to think the move will continue but the chance of a deeper pullback is there as well so being open on direction for this pair is the safer way to trade it. The issue is if they want to push weak holders out they will make an attempt to run to the daily low at 1.6756 at least. Having said that the attempt during the NY session doesn’t show much desire to do something like that and with just about a zero chance of a rate increase any time soon they don’t have much reason to try and clear out weak holders.
I will be open for the short from 1.6723 but since we are seeing potential conviction during the Asian session I will be looking for that to confirm during London and be bias for the short. However if they run it down to the daily level at 1.6661 early I will consider a long with that being a very significant level they will need conviction to break.
The EUR/JPY has a push to the upside now but having done it over two days is not what I like to see. I will have a small bias for the next push up today but it looks to be running off without me at the moment. The set up this morning was too aggressive with the UJ not agreeing and the trapping coming before Japan opened so I will wait to see if they can pull it back and give something else in the next hour or so. Otherwise if they do run it up I will look for the test of the Asian lows for the Long during London. They could push it down to 136.74 as well so I will be cautious at the Asian lows. I will also be open for the short from yesterdays highs of 137.16 if I cant catch the long waiting for a break upwards but with the fake out to the downside on Tuesday the chance that this push up is a fake out as well is lower even though its still a possibility.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts early today with GDP data from European countries. The big one being Germany with expectations of a drop into negative territory. If that does happen or it misses to the downside then the potential for the ECB to print goes up but I think they will be needing more consistent bad data before the Bundesbank gives the go ahead for that. Of which may be right around the corner since it is starting to add up now.
Later is the ECB Monthly report and Euro Zone CPI data. They will be looking to the report to get a picture on how close they may be to printing and if the CPI data disappoints it will add probability to a sooner print fest but will need to drop below zero to scare them good the way I see it. There is also EZ GDP data but I have my doubts that would trump the report or a miss on CPI.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims expected to rise a bit but I doubt it will do much unless it misses big.
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