EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis July 17, 2014
The EUR/USD did get the next push down yesterday running off the first intraday push Tuesday. Today I will be bias for the next push down but with a significant daily level just below yesterdays lows it will take some conviction on direction to break them. The best level to get the short is at 1.3539 but if they do break that they will likely run up to 1.3561 before a turn. Having said that the move down from Tuesdays lows was efficient enough to not warrant a pullback along with the fact there is no sign of bottoming the probability is they will break the daily lows today. The only way I will consider a long is if they do the deeper pullback and then run stops to the daily lows at 1.3513 during the NY session. Otherwise I plan to be short waiting for the break.
The GBP/USD didn’t make much of a move to close any of the inefficiency on the CPI data. On this pair I will be more open on direction since it seems like they aren’t really sure who has more potential of raising rates between the US and UK even after Janet had her say again yesterday. The safest entries will be yesterdays highs of 1.7149 for the short and 1.7111 for the long but there is quite a bit of confluence with the 200 at 1.7120 so I will be looking at that level for the long as well.
The EUR/JPY is fallowing the Euro weakness and finally has a nice daily close below the daily 200 EMA. This does show they have some conviction to the downside but would have been nicer to see the daily close below 137.48 as well. I will be bias for the next push down today but as with the EU there will have to be that conviction to break these lows with the next daily level a ways below at 136.53. Considering where current price is, the best level for the short is 137.74 but the 137.62 is valid if we get hourly conviction below the current lows. Right now it seems as though they are holding it up so if it does hold I may consider the long during the London session but will hold off if the EU is breaking down.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with CPI data from the Euro Zone. With expectations mostly flat across the board they will be looking to see if it drops below zero showing deflation and the Euro will weaken on thoughts of the ECB going full QE mode. Otherwise if it does improve and rise slightly we may get some Euro strength however if its not a large miss it shouldn’t last long since they will still be concerned about deflation until CPI gets closer to 2% on the yearly figures.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims along with Building Permits. Unless the Claims data surprises big Building permits will be most watched. I do think it will need a big miss to cause much of a sustained move since the higher expectations is only a 49k improvement. A large miss in either direction has potential but may be limited since housing has not been of major concern to the Fed lately. Later is the Philly Fed Mfg. Index expected to drop slightly but with five of the previous 6 releases being better than expected the probability of it rising slightly is better.
Asian session traders need to keep an eye on the BOJ meeting minutes tomorrow but I don’t expect much will be different than the Press Conference. The BOJ is out of tools so are rather hog tied on what they can do.
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