EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis July 24, 2014
With the EUR/USD holding a tight range yesterday I will still have the bias for the short but also be more open for the long from the lows. The only place I will be looking for entries is yesterdays highs or lows since they held a 20 pip range yesterday. The 1.3462 level is valid but with current price only two pips away along with the tight range I will be disregarding it today. The 1.3480 and 1.3490 are valid as well but if they do push it above yesterdays highs I will be waiting for the average daily range to be hit before looking for a short during the NY session.
The GBP/USD had the nicer move yesterday with the stop run to Tuesdays highs. If anybody caught that short after the two pins it did provide an aggressive entry for a 60 pip run. With the push below the range on this pair I will be bias for the short today. The best level I see right now is 1.7049 but they may push as high as 1.7057 before the turn. I never like it when the levels are tight so I will need to see something rather clear or at least some conviction below yesterdays lows to consider the lower levels for a short. There is still the possibility this is a fake out so I will be open for the long but will need a lot to change my bias. Having said that the daily close didn’t show conviction but as long as they hold it below yesterdays close during the Asian session the short has the best chance.
That also fits the fundamentals with Carney doing a bit more backing off of interest rate hikes yesterday so the move down should continue providing todays news don’t give reason to believe hikes are coming sooner rather than later.
The EUR/JPY gave a nice entry during the Asian session yesterday. Too bad it only went far enough to get the stop to break even before they came back and hit it during the NY session. Was a nice trade though with the UJ and GJ both agreeing.
Today I will be looking for the move down to continue but wont have a strong bias since it didn’t have the daily close below Tuesdays lows while closing at the days open as well. The move don’t really count as a push but does show some conviction so holding the bias short is best, just not as strong. The best level to short from is yesterdays highs but they may stop it a little lower at the Asian highs if they can push it low enough this morning. I will only consider a long if I see they wont let it pass yesterdays lows.
Forex News Today
The calendar is busy today with Manufacturing and Services PMI data from France Germany and the Euro Zone mostly expected flat so barring a big miss on the German data we may not get much push from them. My thoughts are the German data will need to drop close to the 50 level to create much Euro weakness while a better number would need to be large as well in order to get much strength.
The UK has Retail Sales data which could set the GU off if its much better than expected. Its supposed to get above the zero level but a smidge and if it don’t we should see our push down on the GU.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims and New Home sales. The Claims data wont do much without a big miss with the Fed not paying much attention to unemployment these days while the housing data is expected to drop slightly setting the bar low so a miss to the downside has more potential.
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