EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis October 2nd 2014
The EUR/USD held the range between its most significant levels yesterday showing us they are playing it safe, waiting for the ECB and Super Mario today. I still have my doubts they will do much more than the verbal intervention this time but I will also say that they have pretty much spewed as much dribble as they can saying they are willing to go full print mode. Since nothing has really improved since then they may be to a point where they have no choice. Everywhere I look I do see that most all knew they would eventually do QE but almost every one differs on the “when”. Today is going to be interesting for sure but I expect the price movement on Euro pairs to be boring to say the least. Until we get the press conference fireworks of course. We shall see.
As for potential trades I will still have a bias for the next push down until they hold this chop through the London session which is highly likely. If that does happen I will be waiting for some conviction to show direction that wont likely come until after the news today. The best levels are the same at 1.2635 for the short and 1.2587 for the long.
The GBP/USD is also showing signs of confusion on direction right now. Making a deeper reversal with no conviction yesterday does make me think they were pushing out weak holders before a move down but that’s not enough to give me a bias. The only thing that has changed from yesterday is the lower level has moved down slightly to 1.6174 for a potential long. Other than that they did add more risk to a short from 1.6224 with the push to 1.6250 so if I do take a short from the 1.6224 I will be cautious of any hourly closes above and try to minimize a potential hit.
The EUR/JPY had a very nice move for the second push yesterday so I will be bias to see the third today. I am a little concerned that the move was extended to 140 pips but that wont change the higher probability for the short today. Looking at the daily chart it has a way to go before finding a significant daily level to stop at so the probability is it will still move down. At this point the best levels for the short at 137.81 and 137.93 seem to be too far away to get an entry at so the Asian highs will be where I look for an entry during the London session since we already have a 32 pip Asian range. There is a small chance with the extended second push they may be done but the move was efficient and lacking a daily level to turn from the probability goes down further.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with Construction PMI from the UK. Expectations are for drop a bit to 63.5 which as long as its close shouldn’t create much movement. I doubt it will miss much since they haven’t changed the help to buy yet. Once they do something to that program we will start to see the bigger changes in the UK housing data.
The NY session has the ECB and Super Mario so I doubt the US Thursday Unemployment will do much as Draghi starts his speech. There is a small chance that US Factory Orders misses a bit later but if they do anything drastic at the ECB today, that will be what drives any pushes on Euro pairs today.
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