EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Forex Commentary May 4, 2012
After leaving interest rates at 1% it would seem that Mario Draghi is a better Euro pumper than Jean Claude Trichet was. The way the market reacted sure looked like I wasnt the only one thinking they may do a surprise cut but when he said that there was not even a discussion about lowering interest rates the Euro got a pump that was surreal. We did get a fairly decent set up during the room and several members took the Euro short. I was looking for a slightly better price and it missed my entry by 3 pips but was happy to see that our members did well. I did manage to get a few trades I am still holding on the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and the EUR/GBP. All shorts with the EU riding around break even at the moment and the EJ around 60 pips up and the EG around 15. My goal is to hold these until the Non Farm Payroll release today as I am still expecting the 3rd push down mentioned in the May 3rd commentary on the EUR/USD and with some Yen strength the EUR/JPY should be the biggest mover.
The GBP/USD is a bit more tricky today. I can clearly see 3 pushes down but they are all less than the 90 pip pushes we like to see which makes the reversal a possibility here. At this point I will be looking for the obvious manipulation and trap move to take any entries during the London session.
The Yen crosses all are trading from intraday levels at the moment with no clear longer term pushes that dont go back several days and we could find several pushes down from the highs. The trade I entered here was taken off the manipulation during the Draghi speech yesterday and I expect the Yen to strengthen more as the Euro gets weaker so my thoughts are that if we can break these recent lows from Wednesday then we should be off to the races.
Forex News Today
Todays news starts off with Halifax HPI from the UK and considering the Nationwide HPI release was negative if this does surprise it will be to the downside but since expectations are for the drop I doubt it will be much if any.
From the EZ there is Final Services PMI and Retail Sales. The big one being Retail Sales having an expectation of improvement is what will be watched. If it does improve (of which I doubt) then the Euro will most likely get a small bump but if its in negative territory again the EZ will be showing more signs of the slow down we all know is happening and we will see more Euro weakness.
Lastly today is the most major news event of any month being Non Farm Paroll numbers from the US and the Unemployment rate. The NFP numbers are expected to improve a bit from last months at 173K. I never try to predict this one guys since it is such a manipulated figure so we will just have to wait and see how it comes out. Below is another video from Charles Biederman on just how screwed up and inaccurate the numbers are. Enjoy.
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