EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY July 23, 2014 Analysis
Now we are getting somewhere with the EUR/USD. With this being a first push down after a fake move on Monday the probability has risen substantially that they will make the second push today. Since it is still a first push I will be open for the long but will need to see something very convincing at yesterdays lows to change that short bias. As I look at the daily chart this low of the day close tells me they are likely to test down to the 1.3400 level before a possible turn and if that breaks then 1.3300 is next in line. There are a couple of other levels in between that will likely slow it down but if this is the conviction it looks like we may be in for a nice ride south.
The best level I see for the short is up at 1.3490 but they may not push it that far and stop it at 1.3480. In order to consider the 1.3471 level I will need to see the conviction during London below the lows since its too close to current price right now. Otherwise like I said I will be open for the long with a stop run to the lows but I will be patient and look for more than just the support we should expect kicking in.
The GBP/USD is still in a state of confusion but I will say they have been beating the two daily levels at the lows rather well increasing the chance of a break down. Of course I will be open on direction on this pair for direction again but would prefer the short considering how price has been behaving lately. The best level to short is at 1.7080 but they may stop it slightly lower since they made a test of it during the London/NY overlap yesterday. They may push as high as 1.7096 but I have my doubts if they do intend the break to the downside. I will consider the long from a stop run to the lows as well as I expect these daily levels and four hour 200 do have the potential to turn or at least hold it up for another day.
The EUR/JPY has very similar price action as the EU with a clean push down. I had a feeling the set up during Asia yesterday had potential but since it didn’t give the entry after the UJ showed the two pins to the high of day I couldn’t chase it, so off it ran without me. Today I will be bias for the short and as long as the Euro weakness continues it should break down. Having said that there is a highly significant daily low at 1.3613 that they will likely try and hold due to it having a long way to go down after breaking that level potentially slowing at 135.49 on the way to 134.38.
The best level to short from is up at 136.88 considering the distance from current price but with them holding it below during the NY/London overlap the 136.78 is valid as well. If there is any surprising data we may see them push as high as 136.93 but I have my doubts they will if the Euro weakness holds. I am open for the long but as will need to be very convinced they wont let it go below yesterdays lows.
Forex News Today
The calendar isn’t that busy today but does have housing data and the BOE Meeting Minutes coming for the UK. I have my doubts the housing figures will be far off since we haven’t heard much on ending the help to buy scheme. However the Meeting Minutes could be a mover if they actually discussed increasing rates with any changes regarding a timeline or slowing the housing bubbles expansion by ending or at least slowing help to buy. There is also a BOE Carney speech just before the NY open so watch out for him saying anything on rates again. The last speech he did seem to back off and try to clarify he “was just warning of risks”. I see that as backing down somewhat so this speech should clarify some, hopefully.
The Asian session tomorrow has the RBNZ rate decision expected to raise rates by .25%. As I look at the history, they rarely disappoint so if the NZD traders can catch a clear set up long today it would be worth holding through the release as long as its up well and have the stop to break even.
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