EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY September 11, 2014 Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD showed again that they don’t have any desire to push it up from here and with a lack of news yesterday it doesn’t surprise me. However they did still make a run of 80 pips so at least they didn’t shoot down my thoughts of possibly getting back to more normal moves on this pair. At this point the only thing that has changed is now there is nothing to even give a clue on direction. At least yesterday the first long term push was still valid even though there was a valid intraday push up as well. Today we have another intraday push down so its officially in the chop I suspected yesterday.
The safest entries today will be at the high or low yesterday but I will be extra cautious taking a long at the lows because of the level just below at 1.2873. Otherwise I will prefer to be short from the 1.2958 hoping for a break down if it gets to yesterdays lows.
And so the drama continues for the GBP. I have to admit I didn’t expect my vision to come true yesterday but I think I did say it was a good probability that the GBP/USD would get a bounce if there was just a slight shift back to a Scottish NO vote. Well yesterday it happened and the GU moves 170+ pips off the lows. If any body traded that little nugget of news then you did well. The set up was there but risk was too high unless you knew the news driving it and had the nerve to jump on the train with a higher risk set up. The really nice thing now is that we have a 90 pip ADR now on the GU. Gotta love that.
I will have a bias for the next push up today but with these moves on the news being so large its hard not to think they may pull it back. Especially if by chance there is another poll released today that shows the YES votes have ticked ahead again. It makes me want to laugh when I think of how I discussed this last week in the commentary but it is what it is.
The best level I see for the long is 1.6181 having confluence of a psych level along with a 20 pip distance from current price. However they could just as easily push it down to 1.6157 before a turn. I will be open for a short from the highs but in order for that to play out I think we would need the poll stating the YES votes are in front again.
The EUR/JPY had a nice third push as I expected yesterday. I didn’t catch it during the Asian session because the set up wasn’t as clear as I would like with the only pair showing any trapping being the UJ. I have to say it was a nice move though. At this point I will be open on direction because they already made a 50 pip reversal during the NY session yesterday. If they are going to go with a full reversal then they will do it from 138.18 or just below at yesterdays highs. The problem is there are those two levels just above so they may push to them before turning and any any conviction will need to be seen above them in order for me to be convinced they are going for extended pushes. Otherwise I will be open for the long at 137.85 but would prefer they push it down to 137.72, even though I doubt they will if they intend to break it higher.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off early with German and French CPI data. Expectations are flat for Germany while France tick up into positive territory. Barring a large negative miss I have my doubts either will cause much of a stir. What would be needed is a big drop to threaten German deflation in order to get any thoughts of the ECB printing sooner rather than later going. Later is the ECB Monthly report which could show they are actually closer to QE than I think but I have my doubts considering what they did at the last meeting.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims data expected to slightly drop so as long as its close we wont see much either. I think a positive miss has a better chance but the probability of it being close to as expected is better.
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