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EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 10, 2014 Daily Analysis

February 10
01:18 2014

With Fridays NFP dismal numbers behind us today, the movement on the EUR/USD will depend on if the big boys think the Fed will continue the QE tapering. If we look at Fridays price action alone the answer would be no. In the short term I expect this move to the upside continue considering we have two pushes to the upside, I will be expecting the third today. The only issue that brings any doubt to the conviction on the third push today is that it is Monday and from Thursdays lows price has moved 160+ pips. Having said that there isn’t much daily resistance to stop it either.

The best level to see the start of the next push is at the 4hr 200 EMA at 1.3605. The only problem I see with it is that its close in proximity to current price so it would be best to see them push price up to close the gap down and preferably test the highs. If we do get conviction above the highs during the early London session then the Asian lows comes into play as a high probability level with it being close to Thursdays highs. If they don’t hold it there then the push to 1.3584 is probable.

EU 1hrchart

The GBP/USD has similar price movement with potentially two pushes also. The problem is that the first push out of the chop came Friday before the NFP release. Since this is not a typical way they make the pushes I will still have a bias for the next push up but keeping an open mind for the short. Having said that as long it will take some clear trapping at Fridays highs with the right price action to convince me f a short. The best trade will be long from the hourly 200 EMA where there is the confluence of a proven support level at 1.6386 during the US session Friday. If that cant hold then a dip to 1.6356 is likely. Again if there is the conviction above Fridays highs then the gap low/Asian low has a higher probability for the manipulation and what I would prefer to see. If it can manage the break to the upside today then this pair also has a ways to go before significant daily levels have potential to hold it back.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The economic calendar is rather bare today with nothing of note to mention. At this point they will likely be digesting the NFP numbers and moving according to the plan barring any tape bombs.

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