EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 22, 2013
The EUR/USD today is a little tricky. I can find the 3 pushes down and looks to be having a nice bottoming formation. However what I don’t like is the accumulation period between levels 1 and 2 is too short. What is actually a bit clearer is the red lines since there was three intraday pushes during each push. As I always tell members “the harder you have to look for the pushes the less reliable they are” so at this point I am going to treat this pair as a third push chop scenario with a slight bias to the downside. What will be the tell is if we get the hourly close below yesterdays lows during the London session today. If we get the stop run to those lows I will be happy to take a low risk long position. Considering its Friday and they may want to take some of their money off the table so the long does have some good potential today. The levels I will be looking at are 1.3230 for the short and 1.3160 for the long.
The GBP/USD has had an extended push hitting the next daily level I mentioned in Thursdays commentary and comes back with a full blown reversal yesterday so the bias is to the upside. Its not like we have on a second push scenario so with the right manipulation at yesterdays highs I will consider the short. Having said that the more likely scenario is a drop to the 1.5213 level for the next push to the upside. If that doesn’t hold the Wednesday lows are another possible level to see the manipulation. The fact is daily levels are valid until we have the daily close above/below them.
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Forex News Today
All the significant news releases are from the Euro Zone today starting with German GDP figures early on before the London session gets under way. Its expected to be the same as last release at – 0.6% so a disappointment will be Euro negative. With all the surprises we have seen to the upside there is the chance of the same here but I have my doubts.
Later in the day is the German Ifo Business Climate Index expected to improve also. Why, I have no idea but as I have said many times nothing surprises me these days. At the same time is German Business Expectations also expected to improve. If there is a miss to the downside on these, I expect more Euro weakness and any surprise upward will need to be larger to create Euro strength. Mainly because with the rest of Europe falling apart its hard to believe Germany isn’t getting sucked in to. The only reason they may be doing better is they have been doing more business in Asia lately but what they gain there will never be enough to pull Europe out of the hole by its self. What it will do is create more of a gap between Germany and the rest of Europe which I cant understand why it would be better for the Euro.
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