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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Commentary December 4, 2012

December 04
02:05 2012

Todays EUR/USD , GBP/USD forex commentary is going to be short and to the point with no rants. 🙂 We have a typhoon bearing down on the Philippines so I am doing last minute preparations to be ready for a worst case scenario. I do think all should be well for the live room session later today but I cant guarantee it. We are just at the beginning of it moving on land and it may get caught by the trade winds and move off or it could hit us directly. I will see if I can get some videos for you all to see later.

The EUR/USD made the push up as I expected in yesterdays forex analysis along with the manipulation candle patterns we look for about mid way through the London session. I hope some of you guys caught the 40+ pips that were on the table there. I did see a couple members in the chat group caught the EUR/JPY for a good 50 pips. Good job guys.

I will be looking for more upside for the Euro today until it reaches the 1.3130 level where the next daily resistance is. Right now the Asian box lows will be a good supply area to see the manipulation during London but there is a good chance it will push down to the highs form Friday at 1.3025 before we see some clear manipulation. Of course in an extended level situation like we have there is still the possibility for the short but we need either some clear conviction with an hourly close below a significant level or a 1 hour stop run to the highs at 1.3073.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Dec. 4, 2012

The GBP/USD made the nicer move yesterday pushing up 80 pips after the test down into the break out support level created by the Chinese news during the Asian session. I sure hope some of you guys caught that one too. It was an aggressive entry with the 2 pins to the 15 minute 200EMA but later it did confirm with a nice set of legs.

Today I will be looking for more of the up move expecting the third push to the 1.6143 area where the next level of resistance is. The next truly significant level however is closer to the 1.6176 level where there is a couple of daily highs. As for entries, I half expect this to have a deeper pullback to test that daily 800EMA that held it down for so long at 1.6057 or just above that at Fridays highs. Of course there is the possibility of the Asian lows here holding since it is a break out support level but I will need some clear trapping patterns and some confluence to take an entry long there without the deeper pullback first.

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1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Dec. 4, 2012

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light but we do still have the ECOFIN Meetings going on over Greece so there is definite potential for the tape bombs. There is Spanish Unemployment but I doubt it will be that high of impact considering everybody knows Spain is in a deep hole. 

The UK has Construction PMI expected to stay above the 50 expansion level so unless there is a big miss to drop below that then I doubt we will see much from it. This is one of the news events that we have the possibility of seeing the manipulation the hour before the release so watch out for that.

Happy Trading


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