EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Market Commentary October 17, 2012
The EUR/USD proved that the slightly bullish view was the correct assessment in the Oct. 16 forex commentary but the darn thing never gave us a safe entry and I was stuck watching it run off without me. I did take the short around the daily trend line and took the a -20 pip loss, and later I took the New York reversal short that went 26 pips in my favor and came back to hit me break even while I slept. It could have gone better but then again it could have gone worse.
Today we are looking at a rather ugly 2 push move that now has gone 300 pips and there is a good chance we may have the third that finished here during the Asian session. What troubles me is that these 2 pushes are well beyond the 90 pip range with each being around 170 pips and the third is right at 90 and showing signs of a possible topping formation.
With the way this price action has formed I won’t be treating this as a second push trade with the reversal being more probable. I am not eliminating the possibility for a long because with the momentum behind this move there is still a good chance they will try to test the highs from September 17th at 1.3170 so I will be keeping my options open. The levels to be watching today is yesterdays high at 1.3059 for a long and the recent highs of 1.3120 for the short. I will need to see some clear manipulation at either of those levels to take a trade because the direction is unclear at best.
The GBP/USD is pretty much just as unclear as the Euro right now but is showing a better topping formation at this point. However as I mentioned in the last couple forex commentaries once it had the clean break and close above Fridays highs last week there is quite a bit of room upwards before we see any significant resistance. Because of this I will be keeping an open mind on this pair today also. If we do have a 1 hour close above yesterdays highs of 1.6130 then my bias will turn more bullish and I will be looking for a long. The preferred level to go long from will be the Asian lows but if we get a momentum break and a nice run up we may only see the test of yesterdays highs before we see the next push up. If we see this top hold and push back down during Asia then a clear manipulation move at the highs will be a good shorting opportunity. We will have to wait and see what the price action tells us. One thing that is important to remember when taking a trade is this….whether the cycle is clear of not clear it is important to remember that the reason for taking a trade is manipulation at a clear manipulation zone. Therefore times where we are waiting on further cycle clarification still give great trade setups, the key however is trading from the highest probability manipulation points. Below I have included a link to a video that discusses further how you can identify these high probability manipulation points and then more importantly how to trade from them….after you finish reading the commentary go check it out!
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are light today with only a few high impact events. However I still expect that there will be the usual tape bombs as Europe tries to manipulate the markets with the Spain bailout talk and or other Greece related tape bombs. 🙂
We start with the UK Claimant Count Change and MPC Meeting Minutes. the one that will have the most impact is the MPC. The market has been pricing in another round of asset purchases and if we don’t get any hints of it then the GBP will see some strength more than likely.
Later the US has Building Permits and Housing Starts. There is a slight chance for an improvement here but I have my doubts. From what I have been seeing the housing market in the US is far from stabilizing so it will probably be awhile before we start to see any recovery.
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