EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis June 9, 2014
With Non Farm Payrolls being a non event last Friday along with no conviction to the downside I expect the EUR/USD will make the next push to the upside today. However considering the lack of effort to make the next push last week the chance for a short has gone up as well so I will be more open on direction for this pair with a small bias for the long.
The best level right now for a long is the 1.3627 where it has the hourly 200 for confluence. Fridays lows are valid as well but since they are only 7 pips away from each other I will be looking for trapping in that range for a long. If we do get conviction below Fridays lows then I will be bias for the short and both of those levels will be valid to take the short from. They may push as high as the Asian highs so the backside set up will need to be clear. Otherwise if they push up at the beginning of the London session I will look for the short at 1.3668 while watching for the conviction to the upside.
The GBP/USD also failed to make the third push but considering the big news Friday it would have needed help with the release supporting it and with NFP pretty much as expected there wasn’t much reason to weaken the USD further so the move doesn’t surprise me. Today I will still have a bias for the long but being Monday and no news to help the push it may just hold this range leaving it more open on direction during the NY session later today and tomorrow.
The best level for a long position is the four hour 200 at 1.6788 but I will be cautious of them pushing to the hourly 200 just below which is also close to the 80 level the GBP loves so much. It will take a lot for me to consider a short today and will only be if they don’t move much during London and show a nice clear entry at 1.6824 during the early NY session.
Gold did whip around some after the NFP release Friday but found support a bit higher than I expected closing flat on the day. To me this means the probable up coming smack down may take some time before they feel they can afford or really need to push gold lower, so we will most likely see another couple pushes up to somewhere around 1278.71 before there is a technical reason for traders to sell giving them a less expensive route to pile on shorts and push it lower than the recent lows. At this point the range I will be looking for the long is between 1250 and 1247.69 but will prefer to see any trapping toward the lows of the range with a less risky entry. I am open for a short from the highs and hourly 200 but the trap will need to be clear.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare today other than some speeches from a couple Fed members. Of which I doubt we will see any surprises from but its possible. Therefore barring any tape bomb we aren’t likely to see a large move since lately they will only push the forex markets on data. We will have to wait and see.
Asian session traders tomorrow need to keep an eye on the Aussie Business confidence and Home Loans figures along with Chinese CPI data. With the Aussie data I would expect much without a large miss but the Chinese Inflation Expectations don’t look good with the CPI YoY expected to jump and monthly still remain below zero. Something is not right there and one of them will likely miss big.
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