EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis May 28th 2014
The EUR/USD never made the second push yesterday and reversed to test the lows now showing us that the conviction during the Asian session was a fake out. This tells me that it does have a higher chance of breaking to the downside but not enough to give me a bias for today. The safest entries will be from yesterdays highs for a short or the lows for a long. Having said that the daily level at 1.3653 is still valid for the short but the manipulation will need to be clear that they wont let it pass since the risk is higher from there. The current Asian highs are valid as well with the high during the NY session after London closed but I will need to see them test close to the lows before I consider that level. If they do run it to the lows for a stop run during London I will take the low risk long from around 1.3613 watching for the conviction to the downside.
The GBP/USD made the third push down in glorious fashion running 98 pips from the highs and the daily level I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. However the set up was not that clean and losing my power then later my internet kept me from taking any entries. Although the confirmation entry requirements were fulfilled I cant say I would have taken it anyway due to the legs being rather ugly. As I mentioned in the live London session I was waiting for the hourly candle to close to see if it had any conviction and when it did close below the level there was no pullback to take such an aggressive entry. So at least I cant blame my power and net dropping for missing the entry. 🙂
With it making the third push I will be slightly bias for the reversal today however I am concerned that there is no bottoming formation yesterday. It also has the stop run to 1.6874 for a fake out. Considering that, it does tell me they will likely run it into extended pushes to the downside. I will still prefer the long from the low for the reversal but if they run it up during London without setting up the long I will be open for the short from preferably 1.6835 considering the lower level at 1.6822 is close to current price.
Gold took a beating on the USD strength yesterday dropping just under $30 an oz. Remember what I said about price compression like it had? I do remember saying a couple weeks ago as it beat that lower level the chance of it breaking were getting better and better each time it got rejected. At this point I will expect the continuation since it has the daily close beyond the lowest potential support. I do expect a decent pull back to one of the daily levels I have plotted at 1275.97 and 1283.21 before it makes another push down but if it does run off without me I will look for a long below around 1243.42.
Forex News Today
The calendar looks alloy busier than it really is today. There are only a couple events I will be looking out for which are the German unemployment change and unemployment rate. Expectations are for a drop in unemployed people by 15K while the rate stays unchanged. Last release was a positive surprise but if things are getting worse in Germany this time may do the opposite. If its better than expected then the chance Germany gets on board sooner with ECB QE goes down while I would expect it will need a bigger negative miss to speed that up.
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