EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Daily Analysis June 12, 2014
With the EUR/USD staying in the 35 pip range yesterday it does show pretty much what I expected in that the level to the downside will take some commitment to break. At this point it does have more potential to turn to the upside than yesterday or at least give a deeper pullback before the move down. I will still be bias for the next push down today but more open for a potential long later in the day if they don’t make the break down during the early London session.
The best level for the short is the same as yesterday at 1.3553 but if they do show conviction above there they will likely push to 1.3581 before the next potential short most likely during the NY session today. If they hold it above yesterdays lows through most of the London session I will be open for the long during New York but it will need to show they refuse to let it go below the lows preferably doing a stop run.
The GBP/USD pulled back into the Non Farm chop from Friday last week potentially showing a failed first push down. Technically it does have the first intraday push up but with it just going back into a range with no conviction its best to treat is with no bias on direction.
With equities taking the hit yesterday it could be the start of a turn from US stocks. Considering the UK is the cleanest dirty shirt right now the GBP should benefit as it will be looked at as the stronger economy while risk money flows into the UK and we get the second intraday push up today. The best level to see that start is at the hourly 200 where it found a lot o support during the day yesterday but if they do want to clear stops they will dip it a little lower. Otherwise I will be open for the short from yesterdays highs as well but will want to see clear trapping due to the next levels hey could potentially push to just above. Having said that if they do test yesterdays highs or above I would prefer to be long waiting for the break.
Gold went back to a tight range as well closing slightly up on the day. I do still expect the next push to the upside but they may hold this range for another day before they let it rise again. Once it does reach the break out level at 1278.71 or so I will be looking to see the next push down to at least test the recent lows before the data and potential risk flowing out of stocks runs to gold as a safe haven to hold it above the recent lows and possibly be the trigger for the overwhelming of any smack down attempts making Gold run to yearly highs or above. This will depend on the cat more or less getting out of the bag and the correction in the equities gaining full momentum so I am not holding my breath as of yet. We will need to see equities fall significantly to know they have lost control and gold will surely jump at that time but will give us opportunities as they throw everything including the kitchen sink in to maintain the status quo.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with the ECB Monthly Report and Euro Zone Industrial Production shortly after. I have my doubts the ECB Report will stir much up unless it paints a much bleeker picture than what Draghi said at the ECB Press Conference. This is usually in line so I don’t expect much. Industrial Production could cause move if it disappoints, which I see as the higher probability. Otherwise it would take a larger miss to the upside to really signal any potential of the European Economy getting better, which is doubtful.
The US has Retail Sales data expecting a rise above the last zero print on the Core figures as well as the headline but without this being in the 1-2% range or higher it shows the US consumer isn’t out spending and again proves the recovery they all talk about really isn’t happening. If it disappoints below zero then the USD may weaken as the taper tapering potential goes up. Or at least thoughts of it from the big boys. However considering the Fed has pumped trillions into the economy with no real results its hard to believe they would continue with more. BUT they have already surprised me in the lengths they will go to maintain the status quo so of course the probability of the Fed doing the same thing expecting different results proving they are truly in sane is rather high.
Later in the day BOE Governor Carney has a speech so if I am in a trade on the GU I will either close if my trade isn’t at break even with the stop and if I am I will widen the take profit out and see where its at when I get up Friday.
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