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EUR/USD, GBPUSD March 18, 2014 Daily Analysis

March 18
04:03 2014

The EUR/USD made a nice attempt at making the second intraday push yesterday but couldn’t show any conviction above Fridays highs last week leaving some doubt along with the fact that its a little shy of moving 90% of the current average daily range. Considering all that I will be keeping an open mind on direction today. Normally I would still have a small bias for the next push upward but with a significant daily high just above only 34 pips away from current price along with the worlds geopolitical problems escalating there would need to be some real conviction in higher prices to push above there. Of which I highly doubt they really have. We may actually be on the cusp of the big correction I have talked about the markets needing for the last two years. Yay we might actually see normal markets again, unless of course the Fed steps in and says “not so fast Chad”. To be honest I am not holding my breath but as you will see with the article link I posted at the bottom of the commentary. If the running for the doors starts and confidence is fully blown out of the water it really wont matter what the Fed does as we will be reminded that even though the big boys can manipulate the markets short term. Even central banks cant do so long term.

The best level I see for the potential long on this pair today is at 1.3918 where the NY lows are from yesterday but they may test lower into 1.3907 before they move it upward. I also prefer to see the test upward during Asia before the move down during the London session. Otherwise I will consider the short from 1.3946 if they run the breakout traders to the Asian lows and then the highs first during the London session. If they do run it up with no entry long I will also look for the manipulation at the overall highs of 1.3966.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made less of an attempt to make any sort of push so I will consider this pair to be in the third push chop and look for entries at either the hourly 200 EMA for a short or the four hour 200 on the downside for the long considering that’s where they held price contained yesterday. Yesterdays highs are also valid for the short so I will need a clear set up to short from the hourly 200.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

Significant data releases start off with ZEW Economic Sentiment from Germany and the Euro Zone. Expectations are for a drop from the last releases and I expect this to be close to expectations or more probability for a disappointment than a surprise to the upside. If there is a miss upwards it will need to be big to create any real conviction.

Later the US has Building Permits and CPI data expected to be flat and with where its hovering has more of s chance to disappoint. The housing data will also need a large miss upward of, which I doubt will happen. With the housing sector still on life support and all the vacant homes sucked out of the market by the big boys the chance that a small rise in building permits will do much even though its a high impact event.

The BOE Governor Carney has a speech late in the day so keep an eye out for that if you are in a GBP trade.

Tomorrows Asian session starts with a BOJ Kuroda speech so any Yen traders should wait until after the market settles to trade the Yen tomorrow morning.

Lastly here is the link to this weeks Things That Make You Go Hmmm article. The part that was most interesting starts about half way through Grants beginning article. The beginning part is interesting focusing on an unbias look at the Russian/US situation but its the emails he shared between him and a good friend on where we stand with the economies around the world and how the point will come where the central banks lose what little control they actually have and we get the correction needed to get back on track.

As a bonus here is another on what Jens Weidmann had to say about the ECB going on a print fest. Not good for Super Mario

Happy Trading


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