EUR/USD Gets Bounce Of 1.0500 March 13, 2015
EUR/USD Bounce Off 1.0500 Looking Temporary
At this point it seems as though some are thinking that the 1.0500 level in the EUR/USD is more important than parity and as they show on the monthly chart I can easily see their point. Members know that I am not a big fan of trend lines but when it comes to a monthly level being breeched showing a willingness to push below it would seem to me its all over but the crying. I have to agree that once that does happen(and its looking to be sooner rather than later) then parity will be just a bump in the road to a much larger drop. Normally I would expect this level to see some chop before a break down but that would assume there are buyers waiting to fill orders at these prices. However a one day bounce dont prove that to me and who in their right mind would be buying at 1.05 when in just a few days could be buying at 1.03 or 1.02 unless they absolutely had to. Not me.
We will see how this pans out but in order for me to be convinced this is going to hold I need to see a second push in coming days and the toping have have dont bode well for that. Not to mention the Greek situation escalating as the German and Greek Fin Mins trade jabs.
EUR/USD First Push Up
With the first intraday push to the upside on the EUR/USD I will have a small bias for the next but I am concerned about the toping going on at 1.0667. The best level for a long is around 1.0594 where they held it up during the NY/London overlap yesterday. However I will be open for the short with a test of 1.0667 during the London session while watching for any conviction upward to signal they will be finishing the next push.
GBP/USD Second Push On Carney Diasppointment
With BOE Carney admitting that the UK will not be raising rates at any normal pace while also stating that they may be raising rates while inflation is still low in 2016 cant sit well with anybody thinking the GBP will be stronger in the near future. Hence we get a second push yesterday. We should see the third today even if the EU dont run with as they run the EUR/GBP up and hold the EU above 1.0500. Again the levels aren’t great with the best being the breakout at 1.4913 considering distance from current price. However the 1.4892 is valid but I would prefer to see them push it lower during Asia before considering it or the Asian high for a short today.
EUR/JPY Runs Intraday Push With EU
This pair has a higher probability for the next push up today considering that the USD strength has more potential even if they do hold the EU above 1.0500 for now. Having said that I am still weary of the clear two pushes down but as I stated yesterday the extension of them made the potential for a pullback higher. Therefor I will be a bit more open on direction looking to see some conviction with a small bias for the next push up. The best level for the long is down at 128.32 but if they can widen the Asian range I will be open for its lows if they leave the Asian box closer to its highs. Otherwise I will be open for the short at yesterdays highs but prefer they test them during Asia before a stop run during London.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather quiet today with the US PPI figures when NY starts up. Its expected to rise above zero but considering how US data has been lately I have my doubts. Otherwise it should be a quiet day baring any tape bombs regarding Greece and the bailout.
Have a great weekend
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