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EUR/USD Holds Range, GBP/USD Drops Again Nov. 14, 2014

November 14
02:26 2014

While The EUR/USD Holds, GBP/USD Gets Weaker

With the EUR/GBP moving up blowing its ADR by over half its daily range the GBP/USD dropped by almost 90 pips yesterday showing the conviction in the move caused by the BOE Inflation Report didn’t even warrant a pullback to push out the weak holders. Again the push down yesterday was rather efficient leaving doubt as to whether this three push move over the last two days will have a reversal, for now the probability of extended pushed has risen. However it is Friday and we could still see the week end flows make it retrace somewhat before any extended pushes next week or later during the London session.

Skype Gives My Hacked Account Back to The Hacker

A word of warning to all members in my old skype contact list of Chad.DTFL. Some bonehead at Skype has given the account back to the hacker and they are harassing members again. I just received a message this morning from a member telling me they had received the link asking them to use their Skype log in to see something I wanted them to look at. If you receive anything from that account DO NOT OPEN IT AND DO NOT LOG IN. That is how they got me. A well known to me, members account was hacked the same way and I wanted to help him out so I used the log in. They immediately changed my password and email on the account and started going through the member list asking for bitcoins and trying to get them to log in the same as I did.

After several attempts to try and get the account back unsuccessfully I assumed it was locked for good until today when I found the hacker managed to convince some idiot at Skype he was actually me and unlocked it again. At this point I have sent a final complaint letter to Skype telling them if I don’t get it back I will be using a different chat service and recommend that all members do so as well. We will see if this post gets them off their butt. If not I would never trust Skype again and will keep members informed on which chat service I will be using in the future. We will see. Sorry for the inconvenience to all who have been harassed by the hacker. On to the charts.

EUR/USD Still Range Bound

With the EUR/USD still holding the range I have to remain open on direction today. Yes the triangle I drew yesterday in the London Training session did have the hourly close outside the upper line but since it was during a time of day there was about the least amount of money pushing it leaves doubt in my mind it was true conviction. They seem to be respecting the hourly 200 EMA more than anything right now. I will also say the way price has spent more time at the upper end it shows more potential for a break higher but that’s not enough to give a bias. Today I will be looking for the short from 1.2490 or just above at 1.2497 during the London session or wait for a test down to the 1.2425 for a long on this pair.

EUR/USD Hourly chart 11-14-2014

GBP/USD May Bottom Here

The GBP/USD has made three pushes over the last two days so a reversal here has higher probability. Since just now the hourly candle has closed below yesterdays lows it does negate the potential bottoming formation at the pin bar yesterday but as in the training room we will be looking to see if the conviction is confirmed down for the London session before taking an entry. It has come into the daily break out level we discussed yesterday at 1.5676 but that don’t mean its going to hold. I would prefer to see at least a 50 pip pullback with clear trapping to take the set up short at 1.5721 while more open for the stop run to the Asian lows during the London session today to trade the reversal for 40-50 pips.

GBP/USD hourly chart 11-14-2014

EUR/JPY Pushes Up With Euro Help

With the first push rejection yesterday the probability of the EUR/JPY cruising to the upside has increased. Of course it agrees with the fundamentals of the BOJ print fest but as we have seen, it dont mean they cant push it down to try and push weak holders out. That is the basic reason for the false push. At this point I’m not all that convinced on the conviction to the upside but the false push does add probability for a break up than push down at this point. Having said that we also have to consider the week end flows that could keep it capped today. This morning I will be looking at the 144.25 level for the potential long and if that cant hold the 143.84 level is valid as well. If there is no long set up then I will consider the short from the Asian highs during London but would be happier being long waiting for the break up on Yen weakness.

On a side note I did take the UJ long as the London room was closing. However since it dint move far enough to get my stop to break even before the NY open I tightened my risk to 5 pips and was stopped out as NY did open up. It did barley miss my 20 pip stop before moving up during NY but I didnt want to risk holding a full stop through the NY manipulation.

EUR/JPY hourly chart 11-14-2014


Forex News Today

The calendar starts early with French followed by German GDP figures. Usually I wouldn’t mention France but if it misses big we could see a start of a push early and continue on a worse German figure as well. Projections for growth in Germany have just been downgraded signaling the higher potential for a disappointment today rather than a positive figure. Good thing is they are before our trading hours so if I am wrong it wont matter 😉 Later is the Euro Zone CPI and GDP releases. At this point the CPI should be more important especially if it drops close to or below zero. Otherwise GDP should only get them pushing on a larger miss.

The US has Retail Sales data expected to improve slightly getting into positive territory. If it manages to do so then it should be USD positive while another print below maybe more negative. Later there is Fed Member Bullard speaking again. Lets see if he has more QE on the brain. I suspect not but its surely possible. With Michigan Consumer Sentiment already sold to the highest bidders its probably priced in so not worth mentioning.

Have a great weekend




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