EUR/USD On Hold Waiting For ECB January 21, 2015
Euro Holds Against USD While Weak Against The GBP Ahead of ECB Going Full Retard
With the camps more divided on whether or not the ECB is going to print a Trillion Euros, many are saying that if they do disappoint then markets are going to freak out. I would have to agree with this scenario but what qualifies as a disappointment is questionable. I do think they will be doing something even though one ECB member said yesterday that they havent made up their mind yet. Im sure Mario Draghi has made his mind up and even though he needs Germany on his side he has also gone against the Bundesbank on several occasions. What I would give to be a fly on the wall during this meeting.
EUR/USD Holding Tighter Range
As I suspected the EUR/USD couldnt make a break from Fridays range yesterday and I think the same will be the case today. The higher probability would be to test the lower end of Fridays range than seeing a break to the upside baring any tape bombs from ECB members. Again I will be open on direction looking at the 1.1605 level for the short. However with that being 50 pips away from current price they may hold it lower and I wont get an entry unless they widen the Asian range enough to use its highs for a short. Otherwise I am open for the long at yesterdays lows which is also the current Asian lows during the London session.
GBP/USD Pushes Up After Asia Fake Out
I prefer to see the GBP/USD move along with the EU but in cases like we had yesterday, when the move is caused because they want to push the EUR/GBP and hold the EU we see these types of moves. I do consider this a clean push so I will have a bias for the next move up but this could also be a stop run before breaking the recent daily lows as well so I will be open for the short from 1.5198 if I can catch the long hopefully from the current Asian lows providing they widen the range before London open. The lower levels are much weaker at 1.5123 and 1.5108 for a long unless they push down there during the Asian session
EUR/JPY Runs Second Push
The EUR/JPY will be my preferred p[air to trade today expecting the third push to make an attempt at closing the inefficient move from last Thursday. I am currently watching the 136.78 level for a set up while waiting for the UJ to agree as well. Right now its looking like the UJ will need to test its lower level so if its going to set up it should be in the next hour or two providing the up coming BOJ press conference dont throw a wrench in my plan.
Forex News Today
The only high impact event during the London session is the BOE Meeting minutes. I dont expect much from it unless there is a change in the vote count or someone has started talking concerns of the UK economy weakening. I have my doubts they will be doing any more QE but just talking about it will get the GBP moving.
The US has Building Permits and Housing Starts expecting some improvement. I expect this release to be close and not cause much of a stir and see the probability of a disappointment higher than a miss to the upside. It will be awhile before housing is as high impact as it was a few years back unless we start to see large improvements which is unlikely at this point.
MY APOLOGIES FOR THE BROKEN VIDEO OF INSIDE JOB IN THE COMMENTARY. I DIDNT THINK I WAS COPY WRITE INFRINGING WITH AN ITALIAN VERSION ALREADY ON YOUTUBE. HOWEVER YOU CAN STILL WATCH IT AT THIS LINK. STILL A MUST SEE!
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