EUR/USD On Hold Waiting For Greek Plan B Feb. 11, 2015
Greece Is Forced To Consider Plan B, Russia?
Just last week I watched an interview with the new Greek finance minister in which he said that Greece would NOT be going to Russia for help. That wanst even a consideration. Its amazing how these things can change over night as Europe has chosen to play hardball leaving Greece not much choice in the matter. I have to admit I had a good chuckle when the release from Bloomberg last night said that “European Commission considering giving Greece a 6 month extention” only to be refuted just hours later. As some note that in typical European fashion they float an idea to the markets and gauge reaction. However I dont think they are that smart, sure its something I might consider but at this point I am thinking that when it comes to the European Commission its more of a case of the right hand having no clue what the left hand is doing. Stupid is as stupid does to paraphrase Forrest Gump.
So now we have it. Greece has been forced to devise a plan B and of course Russia is in it as the Greek defense minister visits Russia today. Some think this will be the pivotal choice but to be honest I have my doubts that European Commission will let this fly. They will be left no choice but to give in to Greece and see how things go. The way I see it is the lesser or two evils. Better to give Greece a chance rather than see them pivot to Russia. What would be really great is to see this happen and the new Greek government stick to the restructuring and come out of this in a couple years growing and the Greek people doing ten times better showing the example of what should have been done to the bankers and politicians who caused this whole crisis starting decades ago. Enjoy some more Max Keiser (this is another good one) before getting on to the charts since not much has changed.
EUR/USD Holds In Two Day Chop
With the EUR/USD on hold the best way to trade this pair is from the extremes with the 1.1345 being the best level to short while being aware of the 1.1358 just above. The 1.1323 NY/London overlap highs are valid but I dont suggest trading it unless there is a widening of the range to the downside. Otherwise the 1.1271 is the safest place for a long. Keep in mind they have no plan the way I see it and should another tape bomb get dropped today we will get another spike and the chance for that happening is high.
GBP/USD Waits On Greece With EU
The situation on the GBP/USD hasnt changed other than they have negated any bias on a first push. They have ran stops to both sides of the two day range leaving any potential direction in question as well. The only levels I will be looking to trade is either 1.5265 for a short or 1.5202 for the long.
EUR/JPY Range Bound Testing Recent Highs
The EUR/JPY looks to now be breaking the recent highs but I have my doubts they will show conviction. Its surely possible but we have over 30 minutes to wait. If they do show it then the 135.26 and 134.96 are valid for a long. Otherwise if not then a lower risk short will be in the cards with a clear stop run to the highs. It needs to close well above 135.34 in order to see true conviction.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare today so any large moves will likely be on Greek tape bombs. They have no idea what will be happening but what makes the most sense to me is Greece will get a green light from Russia and announce a potential deal or at least Russian offer. The Euro will tank. Then later we will get some crack pot form the European Commission saying they are closer to giving Greece an extension and it will spike back. To be honest today would be a good day to take off from trading unless I catch one of the Yen crosses 🙂
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