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EUR/USD Pushes Lower On Terrorist Attack – Daily Market Forecast 3/23/16

March 23
01:06 2016

EUR/USD Falls On Terrorist Attack

My analysis of the Euro is the same from yesterday. For the remainder of the week I do still favor the upside move. Last night was a great illustration of how trading is subject to wild cards scenarios. The terrorist attack today really turned any bullish momentum into bearish momentum, if nothing else for the short term. Given the way the EUR/USD held up to the drop I still look at this as an inverse trend channel that has a higher probability of breaking to the upside. It is critical to understand the point I refer to all the time which is the fact that a bias does not mean a reason to enter the market. Take for example the move down yesterday. Even though I had a stronger bias to the upside we never had a valid stop run of a lower level from which to go long. Therefore we ended up with a no trade scenario which is exactly what we want to see if we get a move against what is expected. For today, directional bias still remains open and we have only one upper and one lower listed level from which I will take a valid stop run  reversal from.

EUR/USD Chart - March 23rd 2016

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Pound Begins To Tumble Again

One of the things I talked about in Monday’s daily forex commentary, was the fact that the asset class in the COT data was not showing any signs of turning bullish. We did see some short term bullish pressure which may have been represented by the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday move up. Therefore the short term bullish pressure may already be expended, thus leaving the long term direction to continue. At this point, today’s move is considered a first push to the downside and therefore I will be looking for the second push down. At this point we only have one valid upper manipulation point from which a valid stop run short could occur from. We do have one other point that is potentially valid point I covered in the daily market preview video, but further criteria will need to be satisfied before it meets our trading plan rules for the selection of a manipulation point. 

GBP/USD Chart - March 23rd 2016

Forex Market News For March 23rd 2016

US New Home Sales 10:00 AM Eastern: The only time we had a 15+ pip spike on New Home Sales was October of 2015. That is still within the window of time where I will avoid carrying a trade into the release. That release in October deviated by 90K from the expected number. What is really important about this release is since that time we have not had another release that deviates as much or even nearly as much. Therefore we don’t know how the market will react on a deviation that is as large and therefore we have to go with the last time it occurred which was October of 2015. That is why going into today we have to avoid carrying into the release as the last time a sizable deviation occurred the market had a 15+ pip spike.

This is a critical point when looking at news that might have spiked the market 7-8 months back but hasn’t done so since. If you don’t have a deviation during the last 7-8 months then you don’t know if the market will still spike just as far. If however you have recent deviations that are similar to when it has the +15 pip spike and yet the market doesn’t react then you know you can likely carry into that release without the real risk of getting spiked out. For this month 502K is the expected number.



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