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EUR/USD Rejects Higher Prices – Forex Daily Analysis 12/15/15

December 15
02:14 2015

Before we get into today’s market analysis I wanted to mention that I finished up the month end analysis for November 2015 and it was another profitable month of trading. Once again I not only show the trade but I also show that the level was pre-selected in the members daily market preview video that I do each night. Be sure to subscribe to the email list…you can do so by clicking the widget to the right ———>> that says “Do You Know How The Banks Manipulate Traders”. Once you do you will see the email sign up. Once I get the post loaded tomorrow I will send out an email with the link. If you have not see the last 6 months worth of trade recaps you can check them out by clicking on the Recent Trades tab in the menu.

EUR/USD Creates Stop Run Of Highs

We had a beautiful stop run of our one and only upper manipulation point from yesterday. Overall it was just simply picture perfect, and that was the only trade setup for the day between these two pairs. Like I mentioned in yesterday’s FX market analysis, nothing really matters on overall directional bias until Wednesday. While the market could make a directionally based move ahead of Wednesday’s Interest Rate decision, I personally will not commit. At this point I will continue to do what I did yesterday, which is to simply trade the larger manipulation points that are near the markets short term extremes. For today I only have one upper and one lower manipulation point I will be looking to trade from. For those of you that are members be sure to check out tonight’s daily market preview video as there is one additional point that I would consider for a backside day trade short. 

EUR/USD Chart - December 15th 2015

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GBP/USD End Day Mixes

We have a big number coming out for the Pound today which is CPI. CPI had been falling for the previous 3 years rather consistently but has somehow managed to stop almost perfectly at 0 for the last 9 months. I’m sure there is no ‘fudging’ of numbers happening here…and your government loves you as well (sarcasm included). Bottom line is Carney had previously talked about a potential rate hike (complete joke) and therefore CPI is a major factor in that historically. Should CPI begin to slip below 0 then it would signal, even more aggressively than it is now, no rate hike is even in the distant future. In fact one could argue towards a cut with the numbers coming out of the UK. As you can see this number will be watched.

For today I will continue to trade without a directional bias. We have some really quality manipulation points from which to trade today. Correct levels are 80% of what it takes to learn to trade forex successfully. Therefore, when I’m always more comfortable trading when we have great levels to choose from. At this point we have two upper levels and one lower point from which I would take any valid stop run reversal trade setup. 

GBP/USD Chart - December 15th 2015

Forex News For December 15th 2015

UK CPI y/y 4:30 AM Eastern: This month .1 is the expected number. Any .1 deviation + or – from the expected number should create a sizeable short term spike. Either way, exactly how much the market will commit to this ahead of tomorrows Fed news is uncertain and therefore I would still trade a valid stop run reversal against this news if it were to setup.

US CPI m/m 8:30 AM Eastern: Core CPI m/m is expected at .2 and the headline CPI is expected at 0 for the month. This could get a larger response than previous months with the rate decision on Wednesday, as CPI can help them justify either a hike or a cut based on the release. 



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