February 18, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis
The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday was lack luster at best staying in a 32 pip range. It didn’t help that the US banks were on holiday for Presidents day while none of the news sources I use showed it. I have officially lost any reason to go to Forex Factory now. Since they changed format, that was the only reason I would visit. That’s a story for another day though.
With the EU remaining in the chop there is only one course of action which is to be open on direction today. With the fake out during Asia and the 1.3706 level holding well it sure looks like we might get the reversal today but I don’t want to get a bias from that. The best level to short from will be the over all highs but if they do have conviction to the downside they may only run it to Fridays highs at 1.3713 or the Asian highs this morning. In order to take the trade form the lower levels the trap will need to be clear and entry good with my stop preferably above the highs. Otherwise the potential for a long is there too around the 1.3680 level but I will want to see they clearly wont let it pass with a stop run and no desire to make the push down during the London session.
The GBP/USD again gave another example of the fake out during the Asian session discussed in yesterdays commentary. Of which is why for these pairs in particular I never count the conviction during Asia as true. Today we have a clean first push down so I will have the small bias for the short and second push. If they are going to take stops before a run down it will be at 1.6724 where the potential for the most stops sitting is. They may pop it a little higher to the daily level just above but if they show conviction above 1.6742 they will most likely run it to the highs again. Potentially going beyond showing they needed to push weak holders out before the next set of pushes to the upside. I will be open for the long today but will need a good reason to change my bias. Preferably seeing the Asian range widen a bit with the breakout traders hit at the Asian highs and then the stop run to yesterdays lows. I will also be open for the long at 1.6671 but will want to see they wont let it pass but if it does get there I prefer to already be short.
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Forex News Today
News releases start off with CPI data from the UK. With expectations flat at 2% the best chance for it to move the GBP is if it drops well below there to somewhere around 1.5%. If that does happen we will see that we have a false push as the potential for the BOE raising interest rates goes up or at least the Asset Purchases go down. However with the meeting results tomorrow they may not show much conviction and wait to see what happens.
Next is German and EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment. Of course the German are the more important release expected to be flat also. The best chance for it to cause any conviction will be if it disappoints big. If so it will most likely have a bigger impact on the EUR/GBP which will also drive the GU up due to USD weakness these days. Also keep in mind we have the second day of the Euro Group meetings today but they have been keeping tight lipped at these things lately to keep the panic down. Its the old “sometimes you just have to lie” scenario or better yet just don’t say anything and no news is good news in this case
Later the US has NY Empire State Mfg Index figures expecting a significant drop. With the bar set that low a smaller miss to the downside could stir things up a bit while the probability for a miss to the upside is higher and will most likely have less impact. Shortly after is the TIC Long Term Purchases expected to drop another 24+ Billion which explains why the USD has been weakening. If it surprises to the down side meaning a higher negative number then the USD will probably weaken further over the longer term.
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