February 27, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
We finally got some conviction on the EUR/USD with a first push to the downside yesterday. From what I have seen they are crediting it to USD strength because of the sabre rattling between the US and Russia. If that is the case (which I doubt) then the conviction may not hold if that tones down a bit. I will have the bias for the next push down today but the levels for the potential turn are so close that they could turn it anywhere in the range between 1.3700 and 1.3712 where the hourly 200 EMA sits. If the 1.3712 level gets tested during the Asian session it has a better chance for the stop run when London opens since the range will have decent width at around 35 pips. In order to take an entry from 1.3700 I want to see these levels hold here and a push down to widen the Asian range before the test upward during London. They may push it as high as 1.3728 so I will be watching for that but if the conviction is true then it shouldn’t go that far. I will be open for the long with a stop run to the lows but will need to see the current resistance to hold and the move down to test the lows during Asia and/or early London session
The GBP/USD has made a push down from the highs now going back into where we would be safer not having a bias for the day. If the USD strength holds up it will make the second push down but as we can see making the push over a two day time frame don’t really show much conviction. The best level I see for the short is 1.6695 but if they want to hit stops first they will pop it higher above 1. 6700. If it can manage to push up higher during the Asian session then the Asian lows will be a valid level to look for a long but if not the best level is 1.6635. The hourly 200 EMA hasn’t been getting much respect lately so I wont be putting too much faith in that as a level today.
I apologize for the late posting of the commentary guys. Mt internet went down in the middle of it this morning and just came back. That only happens on rare occasions but does happen.