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February 6, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

February 06
02:15 2013

Have I ever mentioned how much I hate it when they run the markets on intraday pushes rather than the more trustworthy long term pushes. I think I have. That is what we have going on in the EUR/USD these days. As you can see on the chart below each push has been marked and all are 90 pips plus. Today my bias is to the upside expecting the third intraday push. The level I expect to see the manipulation at is the 1.3557 area. There is also the break out support holding Asia up right now at 1.3568 so the Asian lows during the London session may be where we get the manipulation today also. If it does manage to break below 1.3557 with no manipulation the next place I will be watching is the hourly 200 EMA.

I did make some pips yesterday on the short bias built after the hourly close below 1.3481 and the large pullback. My first entry was taken after the pin bar into the manipulation box. As members know I don’t like taking these entries as they are more aggressive than I like but there was the confluence of the box along with the 15min 200 EMA just above. Of course being an aggressive entry I waited for the pullback to the top of the pin. Boom 45 minutes later I took the hit. As I watched the market for the next 45 minutes it gave another set of pinned legs and all the confluence was still there but now I also had the 3 intraday pushes upward to add to it so I shorted again at 1.3561 on the pullback after the set of legs. Once the market moved off far enough to get may stop to break even I set the take profit just above the hourly 200 EMA and went to bed. Woke up this morning to the 52 pip gain so a 32 pip gain for the day. Not a bad day after taking the first hit. I hope some of our members were able to catch the entry also hopefully not taking the first hit like I did. 🙂

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb. 6, 2013


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The GBP/USD yesterday did somewhat as expected but with the pop above 50 in their Services PMI I mentioned in yesterdays commentary it also created the pop for a 2 hour push up. It was too bad there was no clear manipulation at the hourly 200 EMA because in hind site I would have much preferred to be short this pair for the 150 pip move rather than have to work so hard to get 32 out of the Euro. However such as trading goes and on to the next trade.

I also want to mention the hourly close above Mondays highs for those who might see that as conviction. Although the close was there and enough above the level to show some conviction we also have to look at the candle formation and ask our self “does this candle show true conviction?” For some its obviously a big no but one could argue the close was there. I agree, however when a candle closes as a clear hourly pin bar the rejection trumps what small conviction there is in that particular close. If the close was just 10 pips higher then its true conviction. Im not saying there was an entry there or I would have been on it like stink on you know what but I did want to point out the ONLY exception on an hourly conviction close candle. 

As far as what we have for today bias is up in the air. It could be looked at a few different ways and for the sake of confusion Im not going to go into all of them. At this point I will be looking for clear manipulation at the break out level at 1.5680 for the short or possibly the 1.5700 if the 80 level cant hold. Otherwise with an hourly close below yesterdays lows I will look for the pullback to the Asian highs first. Im also open for a long position with an hourly stop run to yesterdays lows but I will be watching closely for the close below.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb. 6, 2013

Forex News Today

With rate decisions from both the BOE and ECB tomorrow news is light today. Early on there is Halifax HPI from the UK and later German Factory Orders neither of which I expect much from so movement today will be either on price action mostly or the occasional tape bombs we have all come to have a love hate relationship with.

Happy Trading


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