February 7, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
We have made it to NFP Friday just as Super Mario Draghi slammed the EUR/USD drop into reverse yesterday for a 130+ pip move. The fact that it wildly blew out the average daily range with a inefficient move we should see a pullback before any more pushing to the upside. Along with that the ADP Nonfarm figures were a disappointment so the chance todays BLS figures do the same is higher than any surprise to the upside and takes some of the fundamental picture away for the pullback. The big question is will the Fed keep up the taper with the employment data getting worse. At this point I am thinking they will try at the next meeting but it wont last long and like I have mentioned many times before, I agree with the many out there that eventually they will not just stop any tapering but increase the purchases because in order to try and maintain the status quo they will have to. That’s when we really start on the road to ruin for the Fed and risk the hyperinflation every one I agree with is saying will happen. When they are confronted with that problem the question will be “can they go against the rich and powerful and do the right thing?” My guess is NOT.
The best way to treat this pair today is open on direction due to the large move and possible pullback. The chance of seeing a wide Asian range today is low due to NFP later so I will be open for the short from the 4hr 200 EMA at 1.3605 just above the psych level. It could go as high as 1.3620 but the confluence is much better at the EMA. The best level to take a long is way down at 1.3558 at the 1hr 200 where the daily level is just below. This will be when the efficiency comes back in but if they do run it that far down I hope to have the short triggered, profits taken and leave my desk for the day well ahead of the NFP release. I will be open for the long if I miss the short and it runs to the hourly 200 early in the London session or possibly at the 1.3584 level if I see the right price action during early London showing there is no desire to get the orders between 1.3584 and 1.3557.
The GBP/USD has made no effort to show any conviction other than making a higher low and higher high but that don’t show ant clue t direction in my view so I will be peon on direction here again. The levels haven’t really changed with just the addition of the 1.6306 just above the psych 1.6300 but the better and preferred place to look for a long is 1.6288. Otherwise the stop run to the highs has some possibility but if I see any conviction above yesterdays highs I will be bias for the long.
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Forex News Today
There are only a couple significant events before the NFP figures come out today. Keep in mind that these will need a large miss to create much movement and even then will most likely just be manipulation before the big jobs report. First is UK Industrial an Manufacturing Production which has a better chance of missing to the upside. Next is German Industrial Production.
Watch out for NFP as always.
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