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Fed Reveals Lack Of US Strength – Daily Forex Forecast 3/17/16

March 17
01:45 2016

EUR/USD Rallies On Global Risk??

I’m really surprised to see how aggressively both the Euro and Pound have taken off to the upside on the dovish comments from the Fed. Was anyone expecting a bullish Fed?? Really?? To me its much more a question of who is in the worst situation, than who is in a good situation. With that being said, I would call this a first push to the upside if it was not created by news. Right now we are in a situation that really limits the ability to get a trade. For those that read this daily forex commentary you have heard me talk about level selection many many times. Because we must have a valid level to even consider a trade, price action like we had today really limits our opportunities. As you look to the downside there is simply nothing that tells us where liquidity would likely be stacked, and the same can be said about our upper levels. At this point I do not have an upper or lower level that is within the current ADR. As I was talking about in the daily market preview tonight if we are going to see a trade it will likely come from a newly created level.

EUR/USD Chart - March 17th 2016

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USD Weakness Stops Pound Slide

The Pound has been getting hammered for months but today it has found the second reprieve in the last week. The first was the Euro rally and now the Fed dovish comments is the second. Overall I would imagine this rally will hold up as well as the previous, which was very short lived. With that being said this is not really a matter of one currency showing strength and one showing weakness. With that being said it is much more a matter of which currency is the weakest because both are weak. The Pound does have one thing going for it which is historical price action giving support on the longer term charts. In regards to what we will be looking for today, we do not have a listed level at present. Therefore we would need to see the creation of a new level for anything to happen. 

GBP/USD Chart - March 17th 2016

Forex Market News For Market 17th 2016

UK Interest Rate Decision 8:00 AM Eastern: More than likely the bank rate vote will have the highest probability of a surprise. Remember the first number is those voting for a hike, the second number is those voting for a cut, and the third is those who voted to keep rates unchanged. This month 0-0-9 is the expected number so be sure to watch that for any deviation.

Philly Fed Index 8:30 AM Eastern: This was a previous news event that spiked the market in the past but I would have no issue holding into this release now. 



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