Final Daily Forex Market Commentary Of 2015 – 12/23/15
This is the final daily forex commentary for 2015! 2016 will be the start of the 7th year I have been running Day Trading Forex Live and I look forward to working with everyone. For 2016 I plan on taking less new members. The only way I can do this is by raising the price to slow sign ups so I just want to give everyone the advanced warning that the current price will be higher for 2016.
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EUR/USD Continues Push Up
Even if we were not in a holiday market, the last 2 pushes to the upside on the EUR/USD have been quite small and thus why I hesitate to trade them directionally as mentioned yesterday. Like I said before, I would continue to trade with an open directional bias for the remainder of the year given the lack of directional commitment we often see during this time. To wrap up the final trading day this week (I recommend avoiding the day before Christmas as well) we do have some quality manipulation points. As you can see in the chart we have both 2 upper and 2 lower points from which a valid stop run would be required to take the setup.
Pound Breaks Out Of Range
We had an interesting push to the downside today in the GBP/USD considering the US Dollar index continued to show a bearish move. That points to extreme weakness in the Pound. If you look at the EUR/GBP we have seen one heck of a surge from the range lows that could be coming to an end shortly as we approach the range highs on the daily chart. What happens on the EUR/GBP as it approaches the daily chart range highs will give a strong indication to future direction.
Today the Pound is in fresh territory as it has not been at this price since early 2015. There is only one point I would look for short term trend continuation, and that is around the previous breakout point to the downside. Retesting the backside of a clear breakout point is essentially retesting a decision point and therefore it often holds a great deal of liquidity. According to the rules of our online forex course, we have just satisfied the minimum criteria we use for establishing a manipulation point and therefore I have added our one lower level in.
Forex News For December 23rd 2015
UK Final GDP & Current Account 4:30 AM Eastern: This month Current Account is expected at -21.5 and 2.3 is the expected number for Final GDP y/y. The reason I mention the y/y number for Final GDP is because q/q will tend to remain as expected but the y/y number has historically deviated more and thus has been what the market responds to. Overall this can be a large market mover but the smaller deviations tend to be thrown out and the price action often goes against the spike quickly.
US Core Durable Goods 8:30 AM Eastern: There is a slew of US data at this time but Durable Goods tends to get the attention. Overall this is another piece of news that has a strong history of reversing the spike. In the November trade analysis there was a valid setup prior to the news and then the news is used to provide the pullback. We then enter against the spike according the the rules of the confirmation entry forex trading strategy. Obviously knowing the news you are considering trading against is critical as you would never consider doing that with something like Non-Farm Payroll. This month Core Durable Goods is expected at -.1 and it is also important to make sure you don’t have a conflict with the headline number.
US New Home Sales & UoM Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM Eastern: New homes sales has actually had very good follow through after the spike on the larger deviations historically. This month New Home Sales are expected at 500K and Consumer Sentiment is expected at 91.9. Unless Consumer Sentiment is a massive deviation I think Home Sales will be what the market pays attention to, especially if a big deviation is hit.