Forex Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY March 30, 2012
Well guys the markets did what I liked yesterday and we had the upside manipulation on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I took the pound just as the Asian box was ending and managed 40 pips on the trade. I didnt like the Euro as much but it did end up moving nicely and a few members in the room caught it for some nice pips. Today the market is still in a whippy 3rd level price action and both pairs have retraced the full move down yesterday plus some. However for those who have watched the recent videos will remember what our resident pro said and the fast straight move is most often the false push. This quick run up along with both pairs creeping up on the weekly highs makes me again have a short bias today. It would not surprise me if they make a stop run to the highs on both pairs before the drop but we are already seeing signs of rejection at the highs. This tells me they may have long orders trapped at those levels so if that’s the case they wont let them see profit by making the stop run. We will just have to wait and see.
The GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are a little more clear with both having a 3 level 3 day push down and the reversal of 3 levels of intraday levels. The GBP/JPY has a H&S pattern for a run up however as tight these pairs have been trading with the USD/JPY the intraday reversal may be all they get. We will have to wait and see which way the manipulation goes during London session to get a better idea of direction for today. I am thinking down but not holding any bias right now.
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There is a few decent news releases today with German retail sales that are expected to improve on last months negative release. Any deviation will be good reason for a manipulation move so keep an eye on that. The EZ Flash CPI numbers are expected to drop slightly and if that comes out as expected or lower then the Germans may lighten up on the ECB a bit but its still borderline at the high end of what the ECB wants so we will ahve to wait and see. Lastly is the ECOFIN Meeting going all day. The scheduled news may be overshadowed by tape bombs from these guys but if history can be any guide here these meetings almost always get the pump as they go in and the very next day as even though they did their best to give the markets a jolt to the upside. What is actually resolved during the meeting will be a disappointment. We will hear “we have agreed to agree in the future” several times throughout the day but at the end there will be an “well now we have to go back home and see what mommy says and I will get back to you later” LOL What seems funny about this meeting is they are holding it over the weekend also which seems fishy and smells of “lets do this when the markets are closed so the reaction wont be quite so bad” It should be interesting trading today guys. Just look for the clear manipulation and go from there.
During the US session there also is Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. They are all medium impact releases but the PCE numbers will be most watched since if inflation is on the rise then the Fed will have to rethink. However it would need a big deviation to move the markets today and will most likely be overshadowed by the ECOFIN meetings.
Happy Trading Guys and have a great weekend
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