Forex Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary October 15, 2012
Yee Haww! I have my internet back. Three days with no connection was driving me nuts to put it lightly. The backup is still on order and although we have put the most pressure on them as possible, here in the Philippines they run at a snails pace to get things done. One of the trade offs to living in the Asian tropics. Oh well it will get here eventually 🙂
As I look at my 1 hour chart of the Euro this morning I see a feeble attempt at a second push on Friday with the full retracement of the move during the US session. Also notice that price was rejected at the highs from October 9th. At this point I am more inclined to think that this was a false push but I’m not going to assume that’s the case and will be keeping an open mind. Its not all that often we see the false push on the 2nd move but it does happen. Its the price action that matters most so for today my bias is to the short but not so strong that it eliminates the possibility for the long. What I will be looking for is price to test the hourly 200ema first, find support there and if I see the trap move around the break out level of 1.2960 I will take the short. Otherwise we could see a test of the highs before we see the trap before it has the momentum to break the 200ema to the downside.
The best situation I see for the long is the Asian session finds support here around the US session lows from Friday then London does the test into the hourly 200 or Fridays lows with a clear trap move and a long position has a very good chance for success. If I do manage to catch the long then I will surely be taking profit at Fridays highs of 1.2990. That would be a good 50+ pips and the chance of breaking that on a Monday is low without some tape bomb news to push it. I won’t rule that out though since tape bombs are the order of the day now. 🙂
The GBP/USD is a little more tricky looking today. The clarity of the pushes shows 2 up and we should be expecting the third today. On the hourly chart there is still a ways to go before we reach a significant resistance level so my bias is for the long on this par today. If we do see the third push here then the chances are it will drag the Euro with it so I will be keeping an eye out for that. The wild card here is the EUR/GBP. Its not that often we see the EUR/USD and GBP/USD run in different directions but when the EUR/GBP gets on a tear then we will see that happen. As I type this it is coming up on a break out support level at 1.6052 and showing that its probably going to get there. Depending on how price acts there. this will be the area for a potential long during the London session. If we do see the one hour close below that level it will increase the odds for the short. What I will be looking for is this to hold and make the push up during Asia then test it with a trap move during the London session for a long. If we see the hourly close below and push up during London then a short is possible with a clear trap at the hourly 200ema at 1.6071 or even more probable at the 1.6080 level since the GBP likes the 80 and 20 levels so much 🙂
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are non existent for the London session but I would expect some tape bombs with the meetings going on over the weekend. The way I see it is there should be some damage control coming out since it would seem that they have done the same all talk no real actions that will help at any time in the near future.
The US does have a few high impact releases starting with the Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index releases at the same time. I dont expect much deviation from either of these but the big surprise in manufacturing last month could produce another again.
IMPORTANT: EUR/USD & GBP/USD Update
As I was doing research for this forex commentary both the Euro and cable have made significant breaks to the downside which gives me more bias for the short today. There is still 10 minutes left before the hourly candle closes but looks to be rather bearish. Now I expect a pullback to Fridays lows of 1.2921 for the short on the Euro and for the Cable the Thursday highs of 1.6052 or a possible short run to the 4hr 200ema at 1.6040. It will depend on the price action if they get there.
Today I leave you with a couple interesting and somewhat entertaining videos that I found over the weekend. One is with Ron Paul describing how the US 2 party political system is really just one party since we can just about guarantee that there will be no change to the crony catering to the banks with either party in office.
I have argued the same thing with friends who think Romney is better than Obama and vice versa. It really dont matter. They will all talk the same BS to get elected then make deals behind closed doors that benefit them and their friends the most while they take away from the common man on the street. Its been that way since Kennedy was assassinated and wont change until the people demand it. Dont get me started. 🙂
The next is a animation of the bears I posted videos from before who always have a common sense approach to what actually is going on. Enjoy
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