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Forex Market Daily Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD June 18, 2012

June 18
03:55 2012

The EUR/USD has gaped up yet again with the results of the Greek vote and has made a 3rd push so today I will be on the look out for the reversal. It may not be an extended move but just a closing of the gap will be a nice 90 pip move from the highs formed during the Asian session. I will be looking for the manipulation during the London session to either test those highs or if this smaller range holds for the duration of the Asian session the manipulation above that range will suffice. We are seeing a topping formation and what looks to be the beginning of a trap move considering the 15 minute candle patterns but taking this trade during the Asian session is a bit more risky.

The GBP/USD is in a bit different situation with the large move on Friday making an intraday 3 series push for around 270 pips to the highs here so although I will be keeping an open mind I do have a slight bias to the downside on this pair and we are seeing the beginning of a topping formation also. When I look at the daily chart there doesn’t seem to be much resistance to the upside but that don’t mean it wont turn here. I will be looking for some manipulation to the highs or just into the 1hr pin bars will do for the short also.

Forex News Today

Scheduled news releases are pretty much non existent today. However I do expect the typical tape bombs to be the order of the day as the market digests the Greek and French election results over the weekend.

Nothing Has Changed

On the back of the Greek election that showed a not so different picture than the last Greek vote. The only difference being Syriza falling behind New Democracy. They are really still in the same boat as before with no government to speak of and the way things are looking at the moment there isn’t going to be one and the Greeks will go to another vote next month. The only good thing the market sees here is that Syriza  didn’t get full control and the whole “fate of the Euro” things we have seen published recently has subsided. The problem is nothing has really changed. Spain and Italy are still in trouble and the light at the end of the tunnel is fading if not extinguished. This should be an interesting week.

On another note I wanted to post this video as it seems the opinion I have been expressing in our live room on the most logical fix for Europe’s problems at the moment it seems like I am not the only one that thinks a German exit from the Euro would be the best chance for a shorter length of suffering and the better chance for reforms to get done quicker if the countries can pull their head out. Enjoy.

Happy Trading


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1 Comment

  1. Nicholas Kellagher
    Nicholas Kellagher June 18, 09:21

    Hi Chad

    Analysis spot on again
    easy shorts on eu and gu
    especially gu after little spike on 5m above later Asia range
    where these pairs will go after this is less clear
    I suspect driven by the latest rumours/news

    Reply to this comment

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