FT Reports Greeks Preparing For Default April 14, 2015
Greeks Prepping For Default According to FT, Greece Denies It
I have to admit the Greek news has seemed sort of quiet lately since they did manage to pay the last IMF payment noting that next month will be a different story as they struggle to pay pensions and government employees up to the end of this month. It would seem that even though it was denied straight away by an unnamed official that the “default” eventually will happen but at the same time this reminds me of The Little Boy Who Cried Wolf story we all heard as kids. Nobody cares or more so believes it to be true. So in the end when the event does occur everyone will be surprised as to the effect. Yes most think that with the ECB QE program every thing will be just fine. That is until it isnt and we should be reminded that every bail out that did happen in Europe starting with Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, every single one of these bail outs was preceded by denials they would be needing one up until just days before the bailouts were done. This was when we were informed about the famous “when things get real bad you just have to lie” statement.
“Germany and Greece’s other eurozone partners say they are confident that the currency area is strong enough to ride out the consequences of a Greek default, but some officials acknowledge it would be a plunge into the unknown.”
We can all hope that they are correct with being able to ride it out but I would have to say a plunge into the unknown is more likely the case considering what history has shown us recently.
EUR/USD Gets Rejected On Attempt To Test March Lows
The EUR/USD did show some weakness yesterday but was rejected above the March lows again. The push was valid but again these lows have a good chance of holding it up. The good thing is the more they beat it down the better chance for the break although they did find some more buyers yesterday. The best levels will be 1.0613 for a short and 1.0525 for a long. The high and low of the Asian range are valid but do carry more risk.
GBP/USD Runs First Push Upward
Yesterdays first push up on the GBP/USD does give me a small bias for the long here today but so far they are adding more to the potential its a fake out with the small conviction during the Asian session. The first place I look for a long will be 1.4629 but I will also be a little more open for the short at the Asian highs at 1.4690 or the 1.4680 level if the set up is nice.
EUR/JPY Has Daily close below March Lows
Even though there was a small daily close below the March lows yesterday the daily range being tight along with another significant daily low at 126.57 would need to be broke good in order to open the door to 125.52 or last June lows. As with the EU this could turn any time so I will be open on direction waiting for either conviction to clearly short from or a test of the Asian high at during London or seeing conviction I will consider 126.80. Otherwise the long from the stop run to yesterdays lows is still in the cards now also being the Asia lows.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a little slow today with only a slew of inflation data from the UK. The CPI will be the big one watched but if we see large misses in the PPI or RPI that may get them pushing.
The US Has Retail Sales expected to rise above the zero mark so any disappointment below will be USD negative while just a slightly better will be even more positive. There is also PPI data at the same time so the possibility of an offset with one good and the other bad is there.
Tomorrow the Asian session has big Chinese GDP data so the Aussie has good chance for getting beat around.
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