GBP/USD, EUR/USD FX Commentary March 20, 2012
Well the EUR/USD and GBP/USD did exactly as expected in yesterdays commentary. I didnt catch the whole move but did manage 50 pips on both pairs. The move started so late in the day and since I am not feeling well. (dam flu I think) I had to just set a take profit on the EUR/USD and I manually closed the GBP/USD at +50 just before I went to bed. As you can see on the chart below we have the 3 levels up and now expect the reversal. I am thinking it will chop here for awhile but could reverse today also. Level 3 is harder to predict.
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The GBP/USD is a little more diffacult to read. As we see here its possible it has had a 3 level rise but the red level 1 is in whats known as level 3 price action but has made a 300 pip run up from the bottom over 3 days and could be in for the reversal. However its also possible that the black scenario is true and it could have a 3rd level up still. My opinion is the black is correct since it fits more habits of the Smart Money plus its looking like the EUR/GBP is hammering on a break of some daily lows. This could very well be a day that the EUR/USD and GBP/USD run in opposite directions.
We do have a few scheduled news events today that the Smart Money will most likely use to manipulate the markets with. First is the German PPI m/m then UK CPI, RPI and CBI Industrial Order Expectations and lastly during the US session there is US building permits and housing starts. I have doubts these releases will be much of market movers but keep an eye out for them since any deviations will be manipulated.
There was really nothing noteworthy from the news articles other than a report of Greece may be better off than we all think. LOL I dont think so.