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GBP/USD Retests Major Resistance And Fails – November 3rd 2015 Market Commentary

November 03
03:45 2015

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Euro Reaching Decision Point

I’m going to try to make today’s market commentary a bit shorter as its getting out a little later than normal. Today we had a nice market reversal day trade setup during the New York Session. This was a setup from a newly created level from earlier in the European trading session. Overall the trade only netted 1 to 1 based on our trade management rules which required an exit at the New York session close.

Today the directional bias remains open and I will be looking to take any valid stop run from any of the listed manipulation points. With that being said I do favor a move to the downside. At this point that is more of a gut feel based on today’s price action. I would need to see the first lower level in both charts break to the downside and then provide a stop run on the backside of those points before that is truly confirmed which brings me to my next point. For any members, make sure to watch tonight’s daily market preview video as I break down the backside opportunities for tomorrow.

EUR/USD Chart - November 3rd 2015

Major Rejection Of Push Higher On GBP/USD 

The Pound was heavily rejected after yesterday’s forex news release. If you read my comments on UK PMI then you were expecting the price action that occurred. What I said was, “This would be a good news release for trading against if you have a spike against a previous valid trade setup to go the opposite direction of the news.” Essentially I was just pointing out that the spike is more often than not used to reverse the price and therefore any opportunity to trade against the initial spike is generally a good option. With that being said, based on the rules of our forex day trading strategy we use DTFL there was not a valid entry.

Like the Euro, I will too be keeping my directional bias open for the GBP/USD which is a change. If you remember we were looking for the third push up in Friday’s October 30th Fx market analysis and then we were looking for the third push up in the Nov 2nd forex commentary. When a smart money cycle comes to an end we then revert back to day trading without an open directional bias.

Also like the Euro, although the bias is open I would like a short setup if we had a valid backside of the level stop run occur. Today’s chart is a little bit unique. Normally the charts I list illustrate upper levels from which I would consider a day trade short, and lower levels from which I would consider a stop run to go long. In today’s chart, I would not look to go long from the lower point. The reason I have it listed is because I would consider a short from this level is we break it and then see the market provide a stop run on the backside of this point. Again, if your a member be sure to watch the video as I draw this out in detail.

GBP/USD Chart - November 3rd 2015

Forex News For November 3rd 2015

UK Construction PMI 4:30 AM Eastern: Construction PMI was on a very clear down trend over the last year but has since rebounded a bit over the last few months. This is another however another piece of UK data that has a higher probability of going against the initial spike as compared to creating a long term move in the direction of the news. This month 58.8 is the expected number.

ECB Draghi Speaks 2:00 PM Eastern: This is really nothing to worry about in my opinion. The event he is speaking at is not likely to get comments that will more the market. It is however worth noting and I will have my news up if I’m currently in a Euro trade at the time he starts talking.


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