Gold And Silver Approaching Summer Lows – Nov 12th 2015 Market Analysis
Gold and Silver Continue To Get Smashed
Both silver and gold have been on an absolute terror to the downside. This move correlates to the latest bashing we have seen in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Overall the US dollar had extended its gains and at this point I don’t think there is anything in the immediate future to change the overall direction. People talk about eventually seeing the dollar get smashed and I think that will eventually happen but its going to take falling off a cliff before we see any change. Unfortunately no one is ready to make a change. As of right now the markets are not scared. When we had the latest drop in equities both gold and silver rallied but that has since been almost completely retraced.
As crazy as it sounds we are looking at fresh highs in equities and a new round of lows in precious metals. To be honest I think this is one of the best buying opportunities on gold and silver that we will see for a very very long time. In one of the forex market commentaries from summer I talked about the $10 area on silver being the point where I would start jumping in heavy and I think that remains a viable area. I thought this was out of the picture when equities fell off a cliff in late August, but with the latest rally it becomes a likely longer term target once again.
EUR/USD Is Just Where I Like It
The EUR/USD is in my favorite position! Above all else I prefer a clear range bound market. Why? I know this goes contrary to a lot of what you hear on sites like Forex Factory and all the other platforms that gives 2 month trading “veterans” a platform to speak. People think they love a trend but then when the trend finally does come all the other times they got stopped out scares them and they take a 20 pip profit. With that being said people have been told to love trends so they think that is the type of market they like. The key is not what you or I think but rather what can be proven as profitable.
The reason I would take a range over a trend is a couple reasons. First, the liquidity is clearly located around the edges. Second, the levels are much easier to identify. Finally, the market is in a range at least 70% of the time and therefore a strategy that capitalizes on a range is going to be in the right market condition more often than not. While we can trade in any market (2014 proved that) a range will often provide better manipulation points from which to look for a stop run to occur.
Because the Euro is sitting in the range we will still remain open on directional bias. For today we have two lower and two upper manipulation points from which I would consider a trade if our trade entry criteria is satisfied.
GBP/USD Approaching Previous Breakout Point
Being a conservative trader, there are always going to be times where I miss some opportunities. Once thing I try to teach the members of Day Trading Forex Live is that learning to become a successful forex trader is something that requires developing your own personality. While we can teach you a proven and profitable forex trading strategy, there will always be small tweaks and changes a person can do to make it their own. For example we have traders who trade market manipulation from the 1H, 4H, and Daily chart. While I take all my setups from the 15M chart and our online forex course teaches the entry technique from the 15M chart, there is nothing with adjusting to fit your personality, style, or circumstance.
I mention this because a trade today brought this point up. I have included an additional chart to today’s market analysis. The additional chart is a 15M chart. In the members daily market preview video from yesterday I talked about why I would be taking this level out. I’m not going to explain all the reasons because it would take to long and if your not a member then what I say wouldn’t make sense anyway because you haven’t seen our forex course. What I can say is that the main point of the discussion came down to conservative vs aggressive level selection. Because I tend to be more conservative I sometimes leave potential manipulation points out and only opt to trade from more significant points. This can be a good thing and it can be a bad thing but what it cannot be is right nor wrong. You, and only you can develop into the trader that fits your personality, style, and circumstance. While we can give you all the pieces of the puzzle to become a successful trader, you have to put those pieces in their proper place.
Anyway, for those that did take the continuation trade off the backside of the previous breakout point you have a very nice profit. For those who were looking for the deeper and more conservative level, you got to sit on your hands with me. As I discussed in tonight’s video preview, the GBP/USD may very well be in a current cycle but the starting point is unclear to me and therefore I will keep my bias open.
Forex News For November 12th 2015
Today the only thing that I would pay any attention to are the speeches and overall I don’t think they will be much of a market mover. To start the day Draghi is speaking at 3:30 & 5:30 AM Eastern. During the New York trading session we have Janet “The Piglet” Yellen speaking at 9:30 AM Eastern.
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