Gold Break Fresh Lows On US Dollar Strength – Fx Analysis November 30th 2015
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Gold make a strong surge through the lows during Friday’s trading session. It will be interesting to see how the market takes this move considering the fact that we were in a low liquidity holiday market. Either way I’m glad to see continued pressure to the downside and I would expect this to continue as I have talked about for the last few months. At this point there is no reason to see the US Dollar stop gaining in strength. As far as price targets, I think $1,000 is a given with the latest break. I also feel like $700 is definitely becoming more of a real possibility. If we were to get into the $800 range I would start buying physical gold again as this is my long term target.
EUR/USD Remains Heavy
The EUR/USD was a killer on Friday. Notice the beautiful stop run of the upper manipulation point from Friday’s forex commentary? Unfortunately this stop run occurred the candle BEFORE we begin trading. The fact that it started before the European open is really not the issue, it is the fact that after 2:00 AM Eastern we never made another break of the manipulation point. If your a member be sure to watch the daily market preview video as I go into detail on the broader subject around this setup, and I also link to a past live forex trading room session that details this point as well. After the Euro made its drop we then had a nice stop run of the lows that didn’t go anywhere before the New York Session started. As such the trade would have been closed for around -5 pips at the start of the NY Session based on our trade management rules.
For today I will keep the open directional bias to start the week. I think we could be in a potential downward cycle but the start of the move would have occurred during last weeks low volume holiday market and thus why the bias will remain open. As of right now I only one upper point and one lower point that could potentially come together. We have not quite satisfied the minimum move criteria for the lower level to be valid. Should we get the bounce required then it will be our only lower manipulation point to start the day.
Pound Breaks Daily Chart Lows
The Pound has officially broken into ‘no mans land’ and still remains heavy. Like the Euro, I’m also keeping an open directional bias on the GBP/USD as the potential first push down was during last weeks holiday market. If we are going to see a continuation down we do have one upper manipulation point listed on the chart from which I would be happy to go short with a valid stop run reversal trade setup.
Also like the Euro, the lower level on the Pound has not satisfied the criteria we use to officially be listed as our lower manipulation point to start the day. I would also keep in mind the possibility of a backside continuation day trade if we do see the price just break lower. There is nothing supporting the price which does give the short option a higher reward to risk potential.
Forex News For November 30th 2015
US Chicago PMI 9:45 AM Eastern: This news is actually released at 9:42 to those who pay for the information early. This has the ability, on a large enough deviation, to spike the market 15 or more pips and therefore I would not carry into the actual release. Overall this news is much more likely to be used to reverse the price rather than create a move. If there were a valid setup and this news created a pullback to enter that setup it would be a perfect scenario. For those of you that are members go back and check out the daily market preview video from November 24th 2015. We had that type of trade setup on the GBP/USD which provides a good example of what I’m talking about. This month the expected number is 54.