Gold Daily Chart Stop Run Long – November 16th 2015 Market Commentary
Major Daily Stop Run Of Gold Lows
Last Thursday when the current Federal (as Federal as Federal Express) Reserve puppet, Yellen, began to speak. This created a very large stop run on the daily chart and the terrorist attacks played created this morning’s bullish move in gold, as uncertainty is the catalyst for bullish momentum. I do still expect the price to push down but we may be in for a couple week or longer retrace before the momentum to the downside continues. As I have said off and on for the last year. When I start buying precious metals again I will let everyone know. Around that time I will also write an article about why I buy gold and silver so everyone understands I won’t be buying it to turn a profit, I will be buying it as a hedge against a worst case scenario. Anyway, I’ll save that for another time.
Euro Fails Second Push Up
In the Friday forex commentary from last week I talked about the fact that I was looking for the second push to the upside in the EUR/USD. As you can see by looking at your chart the Euro moved down during the final day of the week. This move down against our market cycle prediction is a great example of how we filter trades. If your going to learn to day trade for a living then you have to be able to filter out bad trades. As I have always said, its not always about how much you make, its about how much you don’t lose.
As the market came into our lower manipulation point we did not break the pre-selected manipulation point by more than 3 pips which is a requirement of the confirmation entry. One of the main benefits of the confirmation entry day trading strategy we use, is it ability to filter out invalid stop runs. This is exactly what happened on Friday and the result was a no trade. If my worst case scenario is a ‘no trade’, then I will be pretty happy with the outcome. Since the market cycle failed to show any continuation we go back to trading without a directional bias. Today I have only one upper manipulation point I would consider a short from, and one lower manipulation point from which I would consider a stop run long. Although we don’t have a great deal of levels from which I would look to trade from, the levels we do have are high quality manipulation points.
GBP/USD Remains Range Bound
The GBP/USD continued to remain range bound on Friday with the exception of the spike above the highs on the worse than expected Retail Sales economic data. This did create a stop run of our upper manipulation point which was followed by a proper confirmation candle a few candles later. Even if we see a valid stop run and confirmation we still must have the proper reward to risk. The correct reward to risk ratio is essential to being a successful trader. As such, the trade was not valid as we never made a deep enough pullback after the confirmation candle to hit our entry point based on the rules of the confirmation entry.
As I discussed, there was a valid stop run of the lows during the NY Session that did provide the pullback for a valid entry. The reason I said I did NOT take this trade in tonight’s daily market preview video, is because we had a much better level only 21 pips lower. Technically the trade could have been taken because the level was not within 20 pips of the already existing manipulation point, but I personally did not take it. This trade would have been +30 pips just prior to the end of day, at which point it would have been closed. My directional bias still remains open on the GBP/USD and I will take any setup from the pre-selected manipulation points.
Forex News For November 16th 2015
ECB Draghi Speaks 5:15 AM Eastern: Last week we had a few speeches that we more of a speaking engagement for education rather than a policy meeting. I did not expect much price action going into the speech and I was very surprised to see just how much movement occurred. While I do not expect much it would be worth making sure you are buy the computer if you start to see spreads widening and volatility increasing significantly.
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