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Golden Fireworks In 5 Days-Swiss Referendum Results, Nov. 25, 2014

November 25
02:56 2014

Swiss Gold Referendum Results This Sunday

We could easily get some fireworks on gold and the CHF next week after the results of the referendum come in. Expect some gaps and high volatility if it does pass. However if it does not pass the moves will be muted and things will go on as normal. For those who want a detailed explanation on the event and what it means for gold and other higher impacted currencies like the Euro, check out the article link below. It is the best, most detailed one I have seen so far.

What was most interesting after the details of what it would mean for other western countries along with others that have been increasing gold reserves such as China and Russia, was the advice given by Deutche Bank and JPMorgan. It shows exactly why these big banks are not to be trusted and if they are willing to suggest that a central bank use funny accounting or balance sheet hiding tricks in order to “show on paper” that there is no need for the SNB to actually buy gold in order to meet the reserve requirement mandated by voters. One can only wonder what they have been doing with their own balance sheets to make them appear solvent when in in reality they are not. One only needs to be reminded of how Goldman Sachs helped Greece cook their books with currency swaps to get a good idea of the trickery the TBTF banks have used in the past and surely still use today.

Even though SNB President Jordan has come out using what ever he can to tell the Swiss that the reserve requirement is a really bad idea, I have to give him credit where it is due in holding his ground and seeing the recommendations from these banks for what they are saying “the SNB cannot simply use some tricks to circumvent the will of the people. I rule that out categorically” Thumbs up for that one!!

Swiss Gold “Fire and Smoke” – “Sermons On the Mount” and “Sorcerers Apprentices”

EUR/USD Pulls Back

The pullback on the EUR/USD yesterday doesnt quite warrant a push considering the ADR is hovering around 100 pips right now. Its worth noting that they didnt run to the level of inefficient price movement as well. At this point I wont have a bias on direction for today and will look to see if any of this move downward this morning is confirmed during London with a set up if they manage to show any conviction below the current Asian lows of 1.2423. If it holds I will be open for the short at yesterdays highs. The best levels for any longs today are at 1.2405 and 1.2374. The 1.2405 does carry more risk being in the middle of price action but does have the psych level as confluence just below. Having said that the lower level is what I prefer for a long if I am not short looking to take profits at the lows.

EUR/USD hourly chart 11-25-2014


GBP/USD Holding Range

The GBP/USD also had a weak push up yesterday showing a little USD weakness but couldn’t make a clean push either. Again its safer to keep an open mind on direction and trade the extreme levels on this pair. Yesterdays high of 1.5711 being the best level to short and 1.5634 for the safer long. There is the more risky 1.5676 level for a long but I will need to see more than one trap there to take the extra risk today.

GBP/USD hourly chart 11-25-2014

EUR/JPY Runs 175 pips From Yesterdays Set Up

Congrats to all the Asian session traders that caught the EUR/JPY yesterday. That was one heck of a run. I was a bit late to the party and dint take it but its always comforting to hear that members are getting the good entries so feel free to post any more in the comments below. As usual I always enjoy seeing how many of you catch these trades.

Today we have had the BOJ meeting minutes push the EJ down to begin with but also have a clean set up at the 146.41. The set up here is good but looking like it wont give an entry with a tolerable risk before it moves off. At this point I need something telling me they wont push down to 146.54 in order to go long here. Otherwise I will be waiting for a test of the lows during the London session later today. The long has a better probability with the first push up but I will still be open for a short from a stop run to yesterdays highs if there isnt a long entry this morning or during London. However it will need to be convincing enough to change my bias for the long.

EUR/JPY Hourly chart 11-25-2014

Forex News Today

The calendar is slow during the London session today. When Frankfurt opens there is German GDP data that could get the Euro moving though. Expectations are for a flat figure of .1% so the chance of a drop below zero is good. If that does happen there will be the scare of recession affecting Germany and the Euro should take a hit as they think the door opens for the Bundesbank getting on the QE train with the ECB. However recent comments from Jens Weidmann shows hes holding his ground for now. There is also a BOE Carney speech we will be watching during the London training session today. Anything could happen but I suspect he will be admitting the UK isnt doing so well and therefore weaken the GBP.

The US has its GDP data release today at the beginning of the NY session. Expected to drop a couple points to 3.3% a disappointment seems more likely but will need to be something to the extent of a drop below 3% in order to create a sustained move on USD weakness. An hour and a half later is the CB Consumer Confidence data expected to improve. As long as its close then we wont see much but a continuation of a move caused by a GDP miss if its inline.

Happy Trading




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