Merkel Changing Tune On Greece? Maybe

I have to admit I couldnt have been more wrong when last week I said that the Greek turmoil should quiet down until the end of the month considering the three week reprieve on bundling the payments they owe the IMF this month. Actually the situation has gotten worse as can be noted by a seemingly change of heart from Germanys Merkel. As it stands right now the potential for Greece to pivot over to Russia has Merkel more concerned even if her finance minister is still holding the hard line.

EUR/USD Runs False Conviction

Even though the EUR/USD looks more likely to run a second intraday push to the downside considering the false conviction and 120+ push down the safer way to trade this pair today will be treating it as having no direction looking to the high yesterday at 1.1338 for the short or waiting for the test to 1.1221 to consider a long entry. The 1.1305 daily level is valid but does carry more risk.

GBP/USD Runs Second Push

Although the GBP/USD second push looks a little shaky with little conviction above Mondays highs I will be looking to see the third today. The best level for the long is at 1.5363 but if it does show any conviction below there then the hourly 200 has a better chance for a turn. The other option is a continuation entry after it pushes above 1.5387 and tests back to it after showing conviction above the Asian highs.

EUR/JPY Runs Down In Chop

The EUR/JPY move yesterday mirrored the EU really close and I expect that to continue. The early conviction above the NY level at 140.38 does increase the probability of a test to yesterdays highs but it will need help from the EU if its going to make it. Otherwise the safer levels to trade are at the extremes looking to short from 140.94 or seeing a run down to 139.37 for a potential long.

Forex News Today

The calendar is a little busier today starting with German Industrial and Manufacturing production. Expectations are for a drop close to zero so a disappointment will need to be negative in order to see and sustained Euro weakness while my thoughts are it would need a bigger surprise positive in order to get much strength. Having said that the Euro seems to be moving on tape bombs and bond moves right now so any data push may be limited.

The UK has NIESR GDP data late in the London session but baring a big miss they will probably wait for the BOE Carney speech later in the day.

Happy Trading

Chad

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