Greece Lies While IMF Fibs On Progress May 29,2015
Greece “Deal Is In Final Stretch” IMF “More Needed From Greece On Deal, Payment Expected, Grexit Unlikely”
Now that the clock is winding down to a moment of truth for Greece its only to be expected that the lies get more and more prevalent. In an outright BS statement made by Greek prime Minister Tsipras yesterday posted on his official website.
I’d like to state that we have taken many steps and we are now in the final stretch, we are close to an agreement. This agreement will be positive for the Greek economy, this agreement will redistribute the [financial] burdens and I believe that, very soon, we will be in a position to present more information. There is absolutely no danger to salaries and pensions or to the banks and people’s savings.
As we know now it was one of those “you just have to lie” situations he was advised to make to try and stem withdraws from bank accounts. As of Tuesday alone Greek banks saw as much as 300 million in reserve cash evaporate from Greek banks according to some sources.
Now lets hear from the IMF since we have already gotten the word on the truth of the matter from the German Finance Minister.
IMF Spokesman has stated that more is required from Greece to come to an agreement and Greece is expected to make its next IMF payment and Grexit is unlikely.
Ok so thats more of just a fib than a lie but is there really all that much difference between the two? Even Deuchebank sees a 70% chance of Greece defaulting and Reuters is reporting that Athens now owes billions to drugmakers as the consequences of being completely beholden to the ”institutions” which control the printing of a fiat currency now weigh on Greece’s ability to provide basic medical services for its citizens.
At this point the more I see on the situation in Greece I think that the rabbit needed to be pulled out of the hat in order to save Greece will be more the size of an elephant. All the while we get these warm and fuzzy statements that “everything is awesome”.
EUR/USD Looking For Third Push
Although we do have clear pushes to the upside on the EUR/USD I have to admit I am a little skeptical of them following through with the third because of the way it has formed. Finishing the second push during the Asian session seems odd at this point and considering the potential for tape bombs being released regarding Greece it just seems unlikely they would have the conviction to push above the 1.1000 level. Not to mention the probability of any conviction during Asia on this pair being a fake out.
I will have a bias for the third push today while open for a short at the Asian highs if I see they cant find any liquidity above. The best level for a long is the daily high at 1.0927 but if this conviction does manage to hold through the London open I will consider the Asian lows for the long as well. However I will not be holding for a longer run.
GBP/USD Extends Push as Expected
The push on the GBP/USD yesterday started after the disappointing GDP figure release. As I mentioned before it still has more room to the downside but also shows some signs of slowing as it was rejected on four attempts to push lower. I cant say that its clear bottoming at the moment but its getting closer. Today I will be more open on direction and prefer the extremes to be taking entries. Having said that the Asian highs do have the confluence with the four hour 200 so if they manage to push down before exiting the Asian box I will consider 1.5341 for the short. Otherwise I will wait for 1.5370 to look for the short. The only level I will look for a potential long is down at 1.5271 but would prefer to already be short and take profit there.
EUR/JPY Extends Choppy Push
Although the EUR/JPY did push higher it found alot of trouble showing there isnt much desire to push it up without the USD/JPY helping. Today I will be more open on direction looking to either short at the highs of 135.84 or take a long from the NY/London overlap lows at 135.25. I will say that the higher close yesterday doe add more probability for a push upward but the chop shows more lack of conviction saying the range is more likely to hold unless there is some real good news from Greece (doubtful) or reason to drag the UJ higher pulling it with.
Forex News Today
The most significant news for Europe is early Greman Retail Sales data today. Expected to get back above zero a disappointment should have a bigger reaction especially if it stays below. Otherwise a small surprise upward should get reaction but will need the larger miss to create any sustained Euro strength.
The only other high impact data is US GDP figures expected to drop below zero. At this point setting the bar that low would mean that a surprise above zero would be more USD positive changing any USD negative sentiment while a small miss to the downside potentially kill any thoughts of a Fed rate increase and push more USD weakness.
Have a great weekend
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